A10 Bracketology

With the non-conference season (mostly) wrapped up and A10 play on the door step, it's finally time to seriously look at bracketology. Of course the caveat remains that it's way too early to speak with any sort of certainty, but the picture is at least beginning to come into focus.

First, let's start with some clarifications and baseline assumptions. No one is technically eliminated from an at-large, as even UMass or Richmond, the two lowest ranked A10 teams on KenPom, could theoretically go 18-0 over the next three months and shoehorn their way into the conversation... that's not happening. For the sake of this article, if you have to do better than 15-3 in A10 play to work your way onto the bubble you are eliminated. With that out of the way, who's eliminated? UMass, Richmond, Fordham, SLU, La Salle, GW, George Mason, Loyola Chicago, and Duquesne. Every single one of these teams has multiple bad losses and quality wins substantial enough to erase them. It is A10 Tournament or bust for these nine teams.

Next you have Davidson. Davidson is 10-3 and the resume is not bad; the Cats have a quality win on a neutral court over Providence and no bad losses. The problem is that the quality win is almost certainly not going to be over a tournament team as Providence looks a particular shade of "bleh" and the metrics do not stack up as the Cats sit outside the top 100 in NET and KenPom. There is a world where our Cats rip off dominating wins to boost their metrics and knock off either VCU or Dayton on the road to get a Q1 win to build their resume around, but it doesn't feel likely. The Cats are alive for an at-large bid, just maybe on life-support.

In a similar spot, albeit arrived at in a much different way, is Saint Joseph's. The Hawks have a Q1A win over Texas Tech, gold in the bracketology world, and a Q2B win over Villanova. That is the good news. The bad news is that they already have three bad losses, each of the Q3 variety, and all of them were at home (which means the chances those losses somehow spring to Q2 is unlikely). Saint Joseph's can earn an at-large by stacking victories and beating Dayton on the road to add another Q1 win but their margin-for-error has dissipated (and maybe even in the red) and do you really trust Billy Lange?

Now come the teams with realistic hopes: VCU, Rhode Island, and Saint Bonaventure. Saint Bonaventure has the best odds of these three. The Bonnies are 12-1, 55th in NET, and 80th in KenPom. They have two Q2 wins, both on neutral courts, and their only blemish is a Q1 loss to a really good Utah State team. Even more good news is that they should get at least a couple Q1 opportunities in A10 play as they go on the road to VCU, Rhode Island, and Saint Joseph's, and get Dayton at home. Split those four games and avoid calamity on the way to a 14-4 A10 record and the Bonnies would likely be in. The Bonnies would just have to make sure to win at least one Q1 game, avoid anything worse than one Q3 loss, and push those metrics into the top 50. Overall, Bona is firmly on the bubble and the path to an at-large is very real, especially with Mark Schmidt at the helm guiding them.

Next up is Rhode Island. The Rams are 11-1, 71st in NET, and 89th in KenPom. They have one quality win over Providence at home and one bad loss against Brown on the road. A big problem is that depending on Providence this season is quite perilous. In order for that win to stay in Q2 the Friars need to stay in the Top 75 on NET... they are currently 75th. One potential saving grace is that if Brown climbs 20 spots in the NET that loss enters Q2 and is no longer considered "bad". On balance the Providence and Brown games mostly cancel each other out, effectively leaving Rhody with a blank slate. This is good in theory but the problem is that the Rams have a very easy A10 schedule; they only have two games that can realistically become Q1, a home game against Dayton and an away game vs Saint Joseph's. Basically, Rhode Island needs a lot of help from things it can't control. The Rams' best bet at the moment is to keep stacking wins and hope things break in their favor. 14-4 in conference play is probably the worst Rhode Island can go and still be in the mix. Out-of-context it would be hard to see an A10 Team go 25-5 and be left out but it would all depend on Rhode Island's metrics, which need to jump by an average of about 35 spots (44 in KenPom and 26 in NET), and how well their opponents do (with an eye towards Dayton, Joe's, Brown, and Providence in particular). The Rams are alive but much of their fate is frustratingly out of their control.

The last of the trio is VCU. The metrics like but don't love VCU; the Rams are top 50 in KenPom but 69th in NET. The bigger problem is that VCU has zero quality wins and a bad loss to Seton Hall that's only getting worse with each passing day. VCU will get up to five opportunities at a Q1 win in A10 play though, as they have Dayton twice and get Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure, and Saint Joseph's on the road. Win three of those games and take care of business elsewhere and VCU will have a good argument on Selection Sunday. Let's say four of those five games are Q1 and they split them and drop just a Q2 game elsewhere, that leaves them at 25-6 and 2-2 v Q1, ~4-5 v Q1/Q2, and 1 bad loss. That's probably good enough to get in if their metrics are Top 45 but add one more bad loss and the Rams are probably cooked. VCU is alive but the path is narrow.

Finally, we have Dayton. As of today, the Flyers are in with a lot of room to spare. Two Q1A wins, another Q2A win for good measure, and no bad losses has Dayton sitting pretty, straddling the 8/9 seeds heading into A10 play. 13-5 is very likely good enough for them to make the tournament but anything worse than 15-3 would be a disappointment for the overwhelming A10 favorite. It's good to be a Flyer right now!

Again, its not even January but at the moment the picture is as follows:

Eliminated: UMass, Richmond, Fordham, SLU, La Salle, GW, Loyola Chicago, George Mason, and Duquesne

On Life-Support: Davidson and Saint Joseph's

Work-to-do: Saint Bonaventure, Rhode Island, and VCU

Firmly in: Dayton.

Thanks for reading along and we will of course continue to update this outlook as A10 play unfolds!