Proof of Theory

Friday afternoon saw Davidson pull out another solid win, making it a clean 5-0 start to begin year four of the Matt McKillop era. The Cats have achieved this impressive start playing an attractive brand of basketball we have affectionately coined “Matt Ball”; hitting shots on offense, stopping opposing teams on defense, and playing nearly 12 guys a night. According to KenPom the Cats have jumped nearly 40 spots, in less than three weeks, from 150^th in the preseason to 110 today. The numbers are even better when you strip out the preseason data, T-Rank says that Davidson has been the 46^th best team in the country this season, equipped with a top 35 defense and top 100 offense. Even more encouraging, the Cats have earned their wins, outside of the opener against non-D1 Desales, against quality opponents. So far, Davidson has knocked off teams currently ranked 150^th (Washington State), 179^th (at Charlotte), 137^th (Bowling Green), and 115^th (Boston College on a neutral court). Sure, none of these opponents jump off the screen in particular, but it’s a verifiable murderer’s row compared to the sub-250 dregs that a lot of the A10 has feasted on so far. In theory, it is not much of a jump up to the teams Davidson will be competing with in the A10’s mushy middle. While finishing 19-11 and 10-8 in the A10 would be a resounding success this season, it is not the long-term goal of the program by any stretch. Thus the question ultimately comes down to scalability. Can the Cats keep it up when the opponents get tougher. Good thing then, that the Cats get a crack at Utah State Sunday night in Charleston.

            Utah State has been VERY good over the past decade or so, racking up wins and NCAA Tournament appearances even as they lose their head coach seemingly every other year. By any metric the Aggies have been one of the best mid-majors nationally during this time, maybe even the best. This season has been no different so far, as Utah State has started 5-0, including a win over VCU in Dallas, and is the 39^th best team nationally according to KenPom. Simply put, the Aggies are the caliber of team Davidson wants to be, the level of team Bob McKillop regularly churned out when he was the head man in charge. Whether or not the Cats win shouldn’t mean too much, unless of course you are of the mind that this Davidson team can actually challenge for an at-large, which I don’t think even the most optimistic Davidson fan can convince themselves of, but playing the Aggies tough would go a long way to continuing the good vibes that have permeated since November.

In particular, it would be amazing to see how this so far stout Davidson defense can hold up against a team with elite skill players. In fact, the Utah State offense is quite the unideal matchup for this particular Davidson squad. The Aggies are pushing the top 50 both in shot-making (45^th in effective field goal percentage) and offensive rebounding (51^st in offensive rebounding percentage). Simply put, the Cats have their work cut out for them defensively. On offense, there are opportunities for Davidson to exploit. Utah State’s defense is allowing opponents to shoot 36.3% from 3, 282^nd nationally, as Davidson fans know, this is an area where the Cats excel this season. Utah State has also been foul prone, allowing their opponents to compile a 42.5 free throw rate, 275^th nationally. Davidson has quietly excelled getting to the line this season, with a top 50 free throw rate.

In many ways, this game should be a very good test for Matt McKillop and his squad. The defense will have to be locked in and the coaching staff will have to be on their game with in-game adjustments and pre-game scouting. On offense, the question will be whether Davidson can attack the few weaknesses that are both present for the Aggies and very much in Davidson’s wheelhouse. While no one in red and black is expecting a win, it would be great to see the program take this opportunity, give Utah State a real challenge, and prove that the early season vibes are apt to last this season.