A10 Bracketology Update

Now that the A10 regular season is over it feels like a good time to give a bracketology update. As there are only two A10 teams in contention for an at-large bid, this update shouldn't too long.

Saint Louis

The Billikens climbed as high as a 6 seed in many brackets back in early February, but have since fallen on tougher times. The last three weeks have seen SLU pickup a Q3 loss to Rhode Island and get blown out by both George Mason (a Q2 loss) and Dayton (a Q1 loss). The good news is that SLU is still comfortably in the field; 2-1 v Q1, 6-3 v Q1/Q2, and 1 Q3 loss coupled with Predictive Metrics ranking a touch better than 40th on average and Result-Based Metrics averaging out in the mid-30s makes for a solid resume that is very clearly a step above what is a sad bubble (seriously, Joe Lunardi currently has a 16-15 Auburn team currently in, but more on that later).

The bad news is that the Bills have dropped to a 9-seed in bracket matrix. This passes the smell test too, as SLU has a very comparable resume to Davidson's 2022 team that was 3-2 v Q1, 6-5 v Q1/Q2, and one Q3 loss (coincidentally also to Rhode Island on the road) and finished as one of the more favorably ranked 10 seeds in the NCAAT. The upshot of all of this, is that Saint Louis is comfortably in; however, I would suggest that they win at least their opening game in the A10 tournament if they want to avoid any chance for the slection committee to play games and send them to Dayton for the first four. Beating GW and taking the rubber match of the Arch Baron Cup in Pittsburgh could very well guarantee that they will be wearing their home jerseys in the NCAAT, but more importantly would be a great way to get momentum back on their side.

VCU

Virginia Commonwealth is in a much trickier position than the Billikens. Buoyed by everyone around them losing and picking up a much needed Q1 win against Dayton to end the regular season, the Rams are in the field in the vast majority of brackets. Their position is tenuous at best though, VCU is the 3rd-to-last team in on Bracket Matrix and even closer to the cutline in many prominent bracketologist's prognostications. This position is backed up by a resume that just oozes bubble: 2-5 v Q1, 5-7 v Q1/Q2, and 0 bad losses coupled with Result-Based Metrics averaging about 40th and Predictive Metrics averaging a touch better than 50th. The best part of the Rams' resume right now is that they do not have a bad loss to their name. This makes getting to the A10 Title game mission critical, as the Rams will not have better than a Q3 game before a hypothetical championship game (likely against SLU/Dayton/GMU).

One other MASSIVE thing working in VCU's favor is that the bubble around them is HORRENDOUS. As of right now there are probably 4 spots for 8 teams, and 5 of those 8 are coming off losses with VCU, Stanford, and Santa Clara as the only exceptions. To illustrate just how weak the bubble is, Auburn is currently the first team out in Bracket Matrix; the Tigers are 16-15 overall, 4-12 v Q1, 8-14 v Q1/Q2, and have a Q3 loss to boot... that is simply not a NCAA Tournament team. For that reason, I don't think VCU needs to be worried about getting jumped from below. If they can make it to the A10 Final and bid thieves are kept to a minimum (hopefully just Akron making it out the MAC) I think VCU will be one of the last 2 teams in. I would not put it past the selection committee though to hold the A10 to 2 bids: SLU and whoever wins the A10 Tournament if SLU can't close the deal in Pittsburgh, or SLU and VCU if the Bills are cutting down the nets one week from today.