A10 Tournament Primer

The 2024/25 Regular Season is over, and we are just days away from the start of the A10 Tournament in Washington D.C. Congratulations to VCU and George Mason for splitting the regular season title! On that note, let's break this tournament down!

The Favorite

The obvious favorite is VCU. They have the best resume, record, and metrics in the A10. In fact, they're ranked 29th on Kenpom, about 40 spots higher than the next closest A10 team. This is their tournament to lose, and when you add in the fact that they are squarely on the bubble their motivation level should be quite high. I'd give the Rams a 25% chance to end Sunday as the A10 Tournament Champions.

Additionally, if you are interested in bracketology: VCU currently sits above 4 at-large teams in bracket matrix. If they were to lose in the A10 Tournament that would mean a bid has been stolen. All of this means that they can't have more than 3 teams pass them out: in my estimation there are 8 realistic at-large teams alive that could do so (Oklahoma, Indiana, Ohio State, Xavier, Boise State, UNC, Texas, and Colorado State) and 3 realistic bid stealing opportunities left (anyone but Memphis in the AAC, Colorado State and Boise in the MW, and anyone but UCSD in the Big West). We will continue to update A10 fans on how these teams and conference tournaments play out as they happen. As for what the Rams can control, their side of the bracket is not good resume-wise. VCU's 4 most likely possible opponents all the way until the final (Duq/Bona then SLU/Loyola) are either low-end Q2 or high-end Q3 games on a neutral court. That means that VCU cannot afford to lose to them, and beating them will do marginally nothing. In my estimation, VCU needs to reach the final to feel confident in an at-large bid.

The Dark Horse

Can you really call Dayton a dark horse? Dayton has looked cooked at many points this season, included a recent, gross overtime game against Richmond. But lo and behold, when there is a big game they show up. Their season ending win over VCU at the Stu reinforces how much talent the Flyers have and the notion that they can absolutely win this thing. For me, the Flyers have the second best odds to win in DC, let's place it at 15%.

Very Much in the Picture

Next up is George Mason, Saint Joseph's, Loyola, and SLU. George Mason had an amazing season and plays defense alarmingly well (23rd best in the nation per KenPom) but they seem to have hit a wall. Over the past few weeks they've been blown out by VCU and Duquesne and pulled out nail biters against basement dwellers Richmond and La Salle. They're not playing their best ball right now but obviously do not count them out.

Saint Joseph's had been playing their best ball, winning 5 in a row, but in the most obvious trap game of all time the Hawks lost to La Salle in Fran Dunphy's final regular season game. Hopefully for the Hawks that doesn't arrest their momentum, but it shows just how hard it is to trust Billy Lange even with a roster as talented as this one.

Loyola fought their way into the final double bye spot and Valentine should be commending for holding this team together amidst an avalanche of injuries. They absolutely can cut down the nets, even if I wouldn't bet them on doing so.

Finally, SLU had a somewhat disappointing season but they have firepower with Jimerson, Avila, and Swope that can match anyone in the A10 basket-for-basket. Again, they probably won't get it done but they absolutely can if their stars get hot.

Ultimately, I'm going to place the odds that any of these four win the A10 Tournament at a robust 10%.

Capable of a Run

In this category we have Saint Bonaventure and George Washington. Both of these teams have top 100 defenses and some scary stars (including probably all A10 First Teamer Rafael Castro). I could very well see either team get hot and rip off a few wins, but I just don't see either of them getting the job done. Think Davidson in 2016/17 knocking off Dayton before running out of steam in the semifinals. I'll give both of these teams 5% odds.

Dangerous

In this category I have Rhode Island and Duquesne. I don't think either team is capable of winning it all but Rhode Island does have the king of clutch Sebastian Thomas and Duquesne has had weeklong stretches where they've played top 100 ball when healthy. For those reasons alone they get 2% odds each.

Superstars

I do not think Davidson or UMass have any sort of realistic shot to win the A10 Tournament, but they do each have a superstar who at one point or another this season had a legitimate argument for being the best player in the conference (even if they both cooled off in the final stretch). I'm talking about Reed Bailey and Rahsool Diggins of course. Thanks to the chance that either guy could go nuclear for a week gives these two schools a 1.5% chance each.

The Rest

Fordham, Richmond, and La Salle are also going to be in D.C. and that alone gives them a shot to win the tournament... They won't of course but still let's give them 1% odds each.