Davidson vs. George Mason: Preview and Rooting Guide

7 PM, Belk Arena, Peacock (sigh)

George Mason -5, 72% (Torvik) / 71% (ESPN)

About a month ago, I decided last minute to take the hour and a half or so drive to Fairfax for Davidson's first matchup against George Mason. While our Cats came up short, I was treated to pure brilliance from Charlise Dunn in a game that Davidson led a fair chunk of. Without Issy Morgan, however, the offense outside of Charli stalled in the fourth, and Mason rallied back thanks to a live crowd and heroics from Kennedy Harris. Crucially, she is likely OUT for this game, as she was in street clothes and a walking boot for Mason's game against UMass just last Saturday.

As much as I'd like to drive the 4 hours to Davidson for this round, my street is completely white with snow. I also made the 10 or so minute drive to the Siegel Center earlier this month for Davidson-VCU, so I'd prefer to head into the A10 tournament in Henrico on a sure winning streak in games attended in person.

To say a lot is on the line tonight is an understatement. For the Patriots, it's almost win out or bust for their at large NCAA hopes, and the hopes for a three bid A10. They carry an 11 game win streak into this one. For Davidson, it's a very likely double bye spot versus needing some help to finish fourth. I can explain later. Let's check the stats first.

Mason's Offense

Sophomore G Kennedy Harris (14.8 / 2.7 AST) was absolutely huge for Mason against Davidson last time, as she has been all season. She's the exact type of player the Cats struggle with the most on defense thanks to their scheme. The Cats generally want to stay home and not help off shooters, using their length and physicality to make jumpers extremely difficult. The good is that this means Davidson has a top 5 3PT defense in the nation. The bad is that short, shifty guards who get switched onto Davidson's wings or bigs have the opportunity to cook. That's what Harris did in Fairfax, which Mason playing a very unusual (for them) 5 out scheme for most of the fourth quarter and letting her go to work in isolation.

If she doesn't play, as she hasn't since February 5th, then Davidson's defensive scheme is a vastly better matchup for the Patriots, who are generally a pretty three averse squad at a 32.5% attempt rate on the season -- though they are a great shooting team out there, even minus Harris. Harris is the quickest player on the court at 5'6", and she's Mason's best shooter at 42% from deep on the year. The other two offensive stars for GMU are G Paula Suarez (11.5 / 4.5 AST) and F Zahirah Walton (14.2 / 5.8 REB). Davidson has the length and depth to mix up who guards each of them, but they're both two of the best in This League.

Suarez is the best outside threat when Harris isn't on the floor, and she's at 38% from deep on the season. However, she prefers to be the distributor and her numbers at the rim aren't great. She's got one of the best assist rate in the conference at 27%. Walton is likewise heading for All-A10 honors for good reason. She's not a great shooter by any stretch (she's at a solid 32% from three on decent volume, but just 29% on Long Twos), but she's one of the best rim finishers in the league at 83-147 (57%). If she takes a shot from outside the paint, that's a good thing.

The main question for me is if Mason turns the ball over at all, and if forcing them to do so gets Davidson in foul trouble. They do so less than anyone in the A10 at 14% on the season. With their defensive pressure (which we'll get to), they turn opponents over on 27% of possessions. That makes for a massive turnover margin. They posted their best offensive TO% of the season against Davidson on January 22nd at just 5.9%. If that was 12% (still very low) instead of 6, the Cats probably win that game. Davidson has turned up the heat a little on defense since then (at the cost of a lot more fouling), and they've forced turnovers on 25% of possessions or better in every single game since. But Mason is another struggle entirely.

With their turnover margin and solid offensive rebounding, Mason is the best shot volume team in the A10. Davidson, though, is the clear number two. The Cats kept them off the glass in Fairfax and somewhat negated their massive TO margin with an equally massive rebounding edge. Davidson held them to a 20.7% OR% last month, so anything below 30% today would be excellent.

The formula to winning a low scoring game for the Cats then looks kinda like this:

1. Win the rebounding battle by about 10%, which is actually far less than before (19%).

2. Don't get blown out in the turnover margin. Force Mason to give it up at least at their season average.

3. Hold Mason to 50% or worse on twos. The Patriots haven't lost a game shooting above that threshold, and they were 30-49 -- by far their best of the season -- in the first matchup. Millie Prior just cannot get in early foul trouble again. If she does, Tomisin Adenupe has been playing quite well, but it's a tough ask to guard this Mason team without fouling herself.

   
   

You also hope that Davidson can entice a lot of midrange attempts from Mason once again. They took 31 such attempts in Round One, but hit 16 of them, which is very high. Davidson's shot quality is simply much better, with a lot of rim and three attempts. If Mason is at a more normal 40% instead of over 50% on those midrange shots, then Davidson probably pulls that one out.

Oh, yes, the Cats also have to score. Let's talk about that.

Mason's Defense

George Mason is a top 20 2PT defense in the country, holding opponents to jsut 40% from inside the arc. That's in large part thanks to C Nalani Kaysia (7.5 / 9.2 REB), who is up there with Millie Prior in contention for best rim protector in the A10. Naturally, Davidson took half of its shots from outside in January, where they went 10-27. However, that was mostly the work of one Charlise Dunn, who hit 6 threes herself. It cannot be a one woman wrecking crew if the Cats are going to beat this team tonight.

The most interesting thing about the game in January is that Davidson was also super efficient from inside the arc. They were 18-27 there, which only Richmond, the best offense in the A10, has bested against the Patriots. It was a fascinating and somewhat weird matchup, and it feels like Davidson ran offense well enough to win the game.

It feels like it because I haven't mentioned the turnovers. Davidson gave it up on 29% of possessions, their second worst mark in A10 play. They just can't do that again. You can live with like 25% given a great rebounding performance, but it really needs to be at like 20%. The Cats were routinely below that mark in conference play before Issy Morgan's absence at PG, so they need her to be at her best against this pressure defense.

If this team hits 2 pointers the way they did early in the conference slate, I can see a path to a 66-63 type of win. The Cats are 11-4 shooting above 45% on twos and just 4-7 below that mark. However, if this game gets very in the trenches -- low possessions, lots of fouls, absolutely nothing easy at the rim -- that favors the Patriots. Davidson would have to shoot like 40% from deep and pound the glass to win that sort of game, which, to be fair, they've done before. Just not yet against a team as good as George Mason.

Davidson has won a lot of scrappy games in the past month, but now is the time to turn the scoring up like it was in January. It's not impossible for Davidson to win a game in the 50's against this team, but I'm not so sure it's repeatable like the formula of high shot quality and a dominant rebounding edge.

This is Davidson's big chance to break through against the top 3 and to have a commanding lead for a double bye spot. One of the Cats' young stars will need to step up against this great defense, and the Cats have to assert themselves phsyically on their home court. Show up and be loud.

Let's get into what happens with a win versus a loss.

STANDINGS & SCENARIOS

Davidson will be heavily favored against GW and Fordham, but they'll be equally heavy underdogs on the road at Richmond, the current best team in the league and a likely at large team. With a win over George Mason, then, 13-5 is likely for the Cats. With a loss, 12-6 is very possible.

Currently, the standings are:

13-1 Richmond

13-2 George Mason

11-4 St. Joseph's

10-4 Davidson

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10-5 Rhode Island

9-6 UMass

At 13-5, the Cats are very likely to get a double bye. They have the head to head victory over Rhode Island, so the Rams could win out and not pass the Cats. Saint Joseph's has games against Mason and Richmond in the closing weeks of the season, meaning a 12-6 finish is possible for them. Davidson could then sneak all the way up to third in the standings, which would be huge for avoiding Richmond's side of the bracket until the Title Game. Rhode Island must also win out to pass Davidson, and they have two tricky road games: at UMass (who they defeated by just 2 at home) and at Saint Louis, a team that's rapidly improving.

The only way Davidson could be left out of the double bye at 13-5 is if there is a three way tie between the Cats, Rams, and Hawks. The initial tiebreaker would be record within the group, and each team is 1-1. The next tiebreaker is record against the highest ranked common opponent. Each team is currently 0-1 against Richmond, but Davidson and St. Joe's play the Spiders again. That's important, because per the A10 rules, 0-1 is considered "better" than 0-2. So if Rhode Island is 0-1 against Richmond while Davidson and St. Joseph's are 0-2, they would finish third (13-5 with a win over Richmond is better than 13-5 with a win over Mason, but it's far less likely). Then head to head would kick in, putting the Hawks at fourth and Davidson at fifth.

For starters, root against Rhode Island in every game. The game between Rhode Island and UMass this weekend is absolutely huge for Davidson, as it's the Rams' most likely loss. If Rhode Island wins out, root against St. Joseph's in every single game. This same 12-6 tie with UMass is technically possible if the Minutewomen win out and Rhody loses an extra game, but less likely.

The same thing could happen at 12-6 if Davidson loses. With a loss today, the Cats will need to root for Rhode Island to lose at least once against UMass/SLU and for St. Joseph's to win once against GMU/UR. That would avoid the three way tie that Davidson loses, and it feels like the most likely scenario for now.

The most disgusting scenario is the one in which Davidson loses to GMU+UR, UMass defeats URI, and St. Joseph's loses to GMU+UR. That produces a four way tie at 12-6. In this case, the standings would go: SJU 2-1, Davidson 2-1, URI 2-2, UMass 1-3. Hawks and Cats get double byes.

*WARNING: RADIOACTIVE* There's also the utterly ridiculous possibility of a four way tie for second at 13-5. It's more likely than you think. Davidson beats GMU and loses to UR. GMU loses out to Davidson, SJU, and a pretty good Duquesne team. SJU beats GMU but loses to UR. Rhody wins out. In that case, in the group: Davidson 2-2, SJU 3-1, GMU 3-3, URI 1-3. URI is the odd one out for the double bye. George Mason is third over Davidson by virtue of being 0-1 against Richmond vs. 0-2. Absolutely filthy.

The final possibility is that Davidson simply wins out, which could bump them all the way to second if everything goes right. But that requires Davidson to beat the 1 seed in the A10 on the road next week.

The TLDR is that if Davidson is in a tie with only Rhode Island at 12-6 for fourth (with a loss today) or 13-5 for third above 6 loss St. Joe's, the Cats win that tiebreaker. The same goes for a two-way tie with UMass for fourth at 12-6. If Davidson is in a three-way tie with URI or SJU, they get the short end. Finally, if there's a four way tie, Davidson becomes the beneficiary again.

Hope URI loses again to finish 12-6, and hope St. Joe's loses twice to finish at 12-6. That would allow Davidson to finish third at 13-5. However, if Davidson loses today and is heading for 12-6, you actually have to root for St. Joe's against UR and GMU to avoid the three way tie. Sorry!