Know the Foe: Davidson vs. Charlotte Preview

December 10th, 7 PM, Belk Arena

Davidson favored by 7 (KenPom) / 6 (Torvik)

I cannot deny that something changed in the air of Belk Arena on November 29th, 2022: it was probably the most gut-wrenching home loss of my time at Davidson.

Well, it was up until that point. Over the next two seasons, Davidson would go 2-10 in games decided by 2 possessions or less on McKillop Court. Last year saw the 'Cats light up Charlotte and take revenge, but there's still unfinished business at Belk.

For a while, the main impediment to this game feeling like a capital R Rivalry (other than the trophy) has been the simple fact that UNCC and the 'Cats have rarely been good at the same time. The Niners' last NCAA Tournament appearance is old enough to vote, and their most recent string of success ended just as Bob McKillop began his long and fruitful peak years at Davidson. The result is that recent good Davidson teams got no real resume boost from playing UNCC. Davidson quite recently had 6 consecutive wins in this series. Few of those were particularly close, and none really helped Davidson's postseason chances much.

However, Davidson has not beaten the 49ers in Belk Arena since 2018. The 2 losses since have been the painful buzzer beater and the biggest offensive dud of the otherwise highly efficient 2020-21 squad's season in a 63-52 head-scratcher. The good news is that Davidson is 2-0 this season in <2 possession games at home, as this one has been the past few meetings.

A win would exorcize a lot of demons from Belk and keep Davidson's resume spotless so far. An emphatic one would be especially appreciated and mostly erase a bad outing against Charleston Southern from memory. Let's dive in.

Charlotte's Profile

Aaron Fearne had a solid first year taking over for recently elevated Virginia HC Ron Sanchez. The 49ers went 19-13 with a 13-5 mark in their maiden voyage in American conference play. However, there's been plenty of roster turnover for this squad, leading to growing pains. Igor Milicic transferred and is doing big things for #1 Tennessee, while Lu'Cye Patterson took his talents to Minnesota. Charlotte was blown out 75-55 by the same ETSU team that Davidson defeated, and they also fell at the hands of a sub-300 KenPom team in LIU, 79-76. They did handle an A10 foe in Richmond, 65-48, but the Spiders have played far below their usual high standards this year.

Offense

The bulk of Charlotte's offensive load is brunt by lefty lead guard Nic Graves (15.6 PTS, 3.6 AST). He's played 84% of possible minutes this season and attempted at least 9 FGs in every outing. He's not been particularly efficient (43.5 eFG%), and he takes his fair share of deep twos. However, there's one thing he absolutely excels at: getting to the charity stripe. He's shot 48 FTs already this season, and he's heavily responsible for Charlotte ranking 6th in the nation in free throw attempt rate. Free points are helpful, because the 49ers have shot it poorly from the field, especially from deep. They're at 30.6% on the year, and Graves is at 27%.

A ton of Charlotte's offensive sets run through post ups for the skilled FAU transfer Giancarlo Rosado (12.5 / 6.5 REB / 3.8 AST). He's sort of a budget Aly Khalifa as an extremely effective passer out of the post (31% assist rate). Blitzing and doubling him down low generally hasn't worked because of his playmaking; ETSU tried and Charlotte had 38 points in the first half. He's a true small ball center and their tallest starter at 6'8", but he doesn't stretch the floor like Khalifa could: he's 0-2 on threes this year. He's not an especially lethal scorer, but he also gets to the FT line extremely often. Rosado went out early in the second half against ETSU and didn't return; the Bucs then finished the game on a 32-15 run. If he doesn't play, UNCC hasn't had much else on offense. The other 49er who averages in double figures is the best catch-and-shoot guy on the roster, 7th year senior wing Robert Braswell. He's not a super high volume shooter, with only 24 attempts this year, but he's hit 13 of them, and that's pretty good. He's shot 37% from deep in his lengthy career. Rich Rolf (6.3 PTS) takes his share of outside shots as well, but he's had a rough start to the year with a 35 eFG% and 6-24 line from distance. Guard Jaehshon Thomas (9.6 PTS) also isn't a great outside shooter, but he's a very effective cutter: 59% on twos, 21% from deep.

As always, Charlotte will favor a quite slow game. They need to because they have't found a consistent combination off the bench yet. A hobbled Rosado exacerbates this. Six 49ers have played over 50% of possible minutes; no one else on the roster has played above 30%. Their pace also helps them take care of the basketball, as they've turned it over on just 13.7% of possessions. Getting to the FT line and taking care of the rock despite not shooting well makes for a not bad -- but aesthetically ugly -- 49er offense.

I would really like to see progress for Davidson's defense. It's no secret we've struggled to defend the three, and keeping a bad shooting team from getting hot would establish a bit of hope that our perimeter defense will improve. Graves will put up his share of shots, and we could see Davidson run some drop coverage against him to entice him into inefficient midrange looks. ETSU pressured Charlotte a bit and had success doing so; while that's certainly not the 'Cats shtick, Roberts Blums's speed could let him slide into the role Grant Huffman played as someone who can guard Graves for the length of the court. Davidson will have a legitimate size advantage down low, with Sean Logan and Reed Bailey both taller than the tallest 49er in the starting lineup at 6'8". The 49ers have been a poor offensive rebounding team, while Davidson's defensive rebounding has been mostly solid outside of the poor performance last Friday. If Davidson stays connected and plays in the gaps, they could repeat the success they had against Providence. Make them hit jump shots and beat you.

Defense

With Ron Sanchez returning to UVA to fill the shoes of Tony Bennett (albeit in the interim), Aaron Fearne's team isn't quite the traditional pack line we saw the 49ers run. They've mixed their scheme up in a "see what sticks" way. They tried pressing ETSU at points and ran some zone to show an LIU team that torched them anything different. Neither appraoch had great results. You have to expect they'll go back to what's worked in this series in the past. Charlotte's most successful outings against Davidson have seen them take away the cutting game: the 2020 nightmare against the 49ers saw Davidson shoot 34 threes to just 16 twos. In last year's explosive performance, however, the 'Cats shot 55% on 32 2PA thanks to the post up game of David Skogman and ability of Grant Huffman to get in the lane.

Both of them are obviously gone, but Reed Bailey's excellent play can offset the loss of the former. As for the latter, Davidson doesn't have the same speed at guard. However, I highly doubt Connor Kochera takes 6 threes as he did last year in this game; it will be up to him to get in the lane and create good looks for Bobby Durkin and Mike Loughnane outside. There could also be opportunities for Roberts Blums on offense. If UNCC plays drop against ball screens as they have often this year, he will get opportunities to show his playmaking in the lane. His feel in the PnR and touch in the midrange have impressed me so far, and if Davidson can get him going downhill off curls against the drop, it could be very fruitful. The primary imperative is simple: don't settle for outside shots and isolation as Davidson has in moments of weakness this season.

The most glaring issue for Charlotte is that they simply do not force turnovers; they're 320th in the nation at doing so. That's good for Davidson, who doesn't turn it over much anyway. The other exploit for Davidson is UNCC's poor rim protection, which has allowed opponents to shoot 56% on 2 pointers. Until last Friday, the' Cats had shot at 50% or better on twos against everyone not named Arizona. Charlotte's lack of size also affects their ability on the defensive glass; while Davidson doesn't exactly crash the offensive boards, Zach Laput has often stolen extra possessions with his hustle.

The absence (or limited role) of Rosado may be felt even more on defense. He has the highest box plus-minus on the defensive end for UNCC at 2.0, and the only other defender with a positive DBPM is Braswell at 0.7. He's got the highest rebound rate on the team at 23.6% as well. On the perimeter, Graves is not a plus defender; he has issues with ball-watching and isn't a good rebounder for his position.

Keys to the Game

Last year's matchup was unusually high scoring and aesthetically pleasing for this series, which has produced several games over the past decade where the first to 70 won and the loser didn't even touch 60. The blueprint for Davidson is similar to how the 'Cats played Providence, another slow-paced team reliant on guard play with unspectacular outside shooting. A winning night for Davidson would look like:

• Shooting 55% or better on twos

• Turning it over 12% of possessions or less

• Out-rebounding the 49ers

Checking off a couple of these boxes is very possible given Charlotte's weaknesses; getting all of them would probably lead to a double digit win barring a nuclear shooting night for the 49ers or defensive meltdown from Davidson.

I expect this to be a close game like the last couple of years, with some gross moments as is seemingly tradition in this series. The reality is this, though: put a different jersey on this UNCC squad, and we'd expect Davidson to handle them at home. Hopefully, the 'Cats can expel some Bad Vibes tonight.

Predictions:

1. Zach Laput gets a couple of key offensive rebounds when Davidson goes cold for a spell on offense.

2. Nic Graves is fouled on a 3-point attempt after a couple of ticky-tack calls, resulting in loud boos.

3. Roberts Blums gets back into double figures after a quiet night last time out.

4. Charlotte tries running a press or junk zone, which flummoxes Davidson for a minute or two.

5. It's a low-scoring game that feels closer than it should for a while.