Offseason Departures

For a fourth straight offseason, the Davidson Wildcats saw extensive departures. Reed Bailey, Bobby Durkin, Mike Loughnane, Connor Kochera, Zach Laput, and Riccardo Ghedini all moved on this summer. That group of six players composed Davidson's entire starting lineup in conference play and 5 of the team's 8-man rotation. Statistically, those six players combined to average 61 PPG, 22.5 RPG, and 13.9 APG; about 90% of the team's total production. That's a lot to replace, so let's jump in.

First, is losing essentially the entire team and all of it's production a bad thing necessarily? Last season's team finished the season 9-14 with multiple late game collapses and struggled extensively in late game situations, was the 175th best team in the country from December 31 on, beat just two teams that finished with a winning record (Bethune Cookman and ETSU), and finished in the basement of the A10 for a second consecutive season. Completely turning over a roster that produced those results should not be a bad thing... in theory.

One major positive from resetting the roster is that Matt McKillop was able to build, with ample resources this time around thanks to the Berman-Curry Fund, a roster that fits his vision for Davidson Basketball much better than last year's team. Last season's team was built around skilled, offensively-oriented players who had track records that suggested that they would be able to shoot the three proficiently. That worked out well in the non-con as the Cats shot 36.5% from 3 and boasted the 54th best offense in the country before the calendar flipped to 2025. When the New Year started and the Cats began playing A10 competition their shooting plummeted to just 32.1% from three and the offensive dropped precipitously to 156th in the country. In fact, four of the six departing players, Zach Laput, Mike Loughnane, Connor Kochera, and Bobby Durkin, all guys with track records as good-to-elite three point shooters saw their 3pt%s fall off a cliff in A10 play. Laput's dropped from 32.1% to 27.5%, Loughnane's dropped from 48.5% to 31%, Kochera's dropped from 36.6% to 30.1%, and Durkin's dropped from 45.3% to 29.8%.

That offensive drop-off was a major problem, because this team had a lot of shortcomings on defense. The guards and wings really struggled laterally on the perimeter, both keeping guys in front of them and contesting perimeter shots. The forwards, especially after Sean Logan went down with a torn ACL, did not have enough beef down low and struggled extensively in the paint and on the boards. A look under the hood bears all of this out: Davidson finished 228th in 2pt defense, 301st in 3pt defense, 294th in rebounding, and 307th in turnovers forced. Frankly, the Davidson defense was bad in every metric except fouls. Ultimately, this led to a sieve-like defense, dropping from 192nd overall in the non-con to 221st in conference play. Simply put, the Cats had to beat you with offense and when the threes stopped falling that task became borderline impossible against quality opponents. It appears that Matt McKillop knows this, because he did his best to bring in better athletes and defenders in the portal. Sure, Sam Brown and Ian Platteeuw will remind you of Davidson players of yesteryear, especially on offense, but guys like JQ Roberts, Parker Friedrichsen, Josh Scovens, and the incoming freshmen along with the plus defenders and athletes Matt was able to retain (Manie Joses, Roberts Blums, and Sean Logan) should pop much more on defense and athletically than last year's team.

In the past, I would have been hesitant about trading shooting and skill for defense and athleticism, but Matt McKillop's past teams that were defensively-oriented have fared considerably better than his offensively-oriented ones. Specifically, the 2023/24 team was Matt's best team according to KenPom and finished over 20 spots higher than the one we saw last season. They had incredible struggles shooting the ball and finished with just the 189th best offense in the country per KenPom, but they boasted a top 100 defense. Matt McKillop's strengths as a head coach may just revolve around having athletic on-ball defenders that can spearhead a solid defense. For that reason, I'm willing to give the staff the benefit of the doubt and see what they can do with a more defensive-minded roster while sacrificing some offense. It's probably an oversimplification, but I'd much rather take my chances on a defense first approach, when every Matt McKillop led team has struggled to shoot the ball even when the roster was stacked with should-be solid shooters and offense first players.

Additionally, I do hold out some hope that Matt McKillop finally landing his ideal lead guard, Sam Brown, should buoy the offense to an extent. We will likely struggle shooting the ball this season and finding secondary and tertiary scoring options, but Sam Brown is the most complete lead guard the Cats have had arguably since Jon Axel Guðmundsson, and should be able to captain the offense effectively while carrying his weight on defense. We also have a few guys with very high upside on offense, specifically Manie Joses, Roberts Blums, Josh Scovens, Parker Friedrichsen, and Ian Plautteeuw, who have the ability to grow into difference makers on offense and provide the support Sam Brown will need.

All-in-all we are losing metric ton of production, including the three guys (Kochera, Bailey, Durkin) who drove the offense forward almost singlehandedly at times last seasson. This means that there will be bumps next season and detours to (ultimately) nowhere, but this turnover should also let Matt McKillop lean more into what he's comfortable with and build a team that matches his vision. Will that yield tremendous results? Probably not immediately, but at this point it certainly seems worth a shot.