A10 Bracketology (1-27-2025)

Heading into conference play we took a deep dive into A10 bracketology and found just a handful of teams alive. One month later that list has dwindled even further as St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island saw their very real chances extinguished and Davidson and Saint Joseph's faint hopes, which were on life support, put out. However, we have had one team's hopes come back from the dead, while Dayton and VCU are still very much alive. Let's jump into it!

The mystery team who's hopes for an at-large have been resurrected? George Mason! The Patriots have enjoyed a stellar start to A10 play, going 6-1 with the sole blemish being a loss at the buzzer to Rhode Island on the road. Over the past month the Patriots have picked up a Q1 win, at Dayton, and a Q2 win, at St. Bonaventure, putting them at 1-2 v Q1 and 2-3 v Q1/Q2. Unfortunately their resume is still held back by two bad losses, one of the egregious Q4 variety and the other of the more mild Q3 ilk. Mix this all together and you get a Strength of Record ranked 68th and a Wins Above Bubble ranked 69th. Coupled with a NET ranking of 72 and a KenPom ranking of 70th and it becomes pretty clear that the Fairfax, Virginia school is definitely alive but only so on the most outer reaches of the bubble.

That said, there is a very real path for the Patriots to get on the right side of the bubble. First off, the Patriots have risen about 25 spots in the metrics over the past month thanks to their plus play. Do that again in February and they'll be hanging out in the mid-40s; very bubbly. Even more importantly, there should be multiple opportunities to pick up quality wins the rest of the way as George Mason still has to go to VCU (a clear Q1 opportunity) and SLU (a clear Q2 opportunity). George Mason will also have to travel to Davidson and GW and gets Saint Joseph's at home, the former two games are Q2 but just slightly while the latter is about 11 spots away from being Q2. Mason will almost certainly have to beat VCU to have a realistic shot at an at-large, but let's say that the Davidson, GW, and Joe's games all end up in Q2 and Mason splits them with the SLU game, and holds serve against the rest of their schedule. That leaves Mason at 23-7 (15-3), 2-2 v Q1, 5-5 v Q1/Q2, with two bad losses (1 Q4, 1 Q3 loss). If the metrics push 40 that is an extremely bubbly resume. However, if the Patriots fail to knock off VCU or lose another Q3/Q4 game then it's probably lights out for George Mason.

Next up is VCU. For as chaotic as the rest of the A10 has been, VCU is more or less in the same exact position as we left them heading into the New Year. The predictive metrics love the Rams as they're 35th in KenPom and 45th in NET, while the resume leaves something to be desired, highlighted by a WAB ranked 64th and a SOR ranked 55th. On paper VCU is 0-1 v Q1, 3-3 v Q1/Q2, and has just one bad loss that is currently Q3 but is just 2 spots above being Q4. That bad loss coupled with no Q1 wins is currently acting as an anchor around the Rams' neck, keeping them around the 15th team out, and stacking Q2 wins will not be enough to make up that ground. Luckily, VCU will get an opportunity to notch a Q1 win when they go to Dayton in two weeks. Win that game and go 2-2 in their 4 remaining Q2 games (Dayton and GMU at home and SLU and GW on the road) and they're in (as long as Seton Hall can stay in Q3). In this scenario the Rams would be 24-6 (15-3), 1-1 v Q1, 6-5 v Q1/2, and have one bad loss (preferably in Q3 loss), couple that with top 40 predictive metrics you're looking at an 11-seed or the First Four in Dayton. It's important to note just how much the Rams' predictive metrics are helping them; there is a presumption that VCU is a tournament-quality team, they just need the results to match. If they can add that Q1 win and keep their nose clean elsewhere, expect them to vault into the field.

Finally, we have Dayton. Dayton is in the best position for an at-large in spite of a week-and-a-half from hell that saw them lose by 20 to a GW squad ranked below 120th in the country, a UMass squad ranked around 200th, and get handled by George Mason at home. Luckily only the UMass loss is deemed a "bad" loss for purposes of the resume but the Flyers played awful over those 11 days and saw their metrics drop about 40 spots across the board. Dayton has seemingly regrouped and stabilized though, crushing a solid Duquesne team in Pittsburgh and leading a Top-100 Saint Joseph's team wire-to-wire in their two most recent outings. All of this has left Dayton at 2-3 v Q1 (including a Q1A win), 3-5 v Q1/Q2, with one bad loss (the aforementioned Q3 loss to UMass in Amherst). The metrics could also use a shot of adrenaline as well, as the Flyers are around 70th in the predictive metrics and 65th in the results-based metrics. Put this all together and the Flyers are around the 10th team out currently. The Flyers finish the season with 1 Q1 opportunity, at VCU to end the season, and 4 clear Q2 opportunities (VCU at home, Rhode Island, SLU, and St. Bonaventure on the road). Dayton could probably afford to lose the VCU game as long as they go 3-1 in the Q2 games, keep the resume clean elsewise, and get back to crushing bad teams to boost their metrics. Resume wise that would leave them at 22-8 (13-5), 2-4 v Q1 (again, the Q1A win v Marquette does A LOT of heavy lifting here), 6-7 v Q1/Q2, with one bad Q3 loss. If Dayton can get their metrics back into the 40s that should be enough to get them to Dayton for the First Four, and who doesn't love a home game in March!

Ultimately, the A10 is looking at 2 bids if things break the right way for the conference but more likely will be solely represented by its conference tournament champion. That would be a disappointing result in a season that has seen the conference continue its recent improvement but it is the A10, so you really never know what lurks behind the next corner.

To summarize:

*Work-To-Do: Dayton, VCU

Alive but on Life Support: George Mason

Dead: Everyone else.

*Both about 10-15 spots outside the at-large picture.

Thanks for reading along!