A10 Bracketology - January 1

Before January 1st Bracketology is worth about as much as the paper it’s printed on, but once the non-conference season ends and the calendar flips the made-up college basketball science starts to hold some more weight. Luckily the A10 has experienced quite the resurgence across the board, so this pseudo-science doesn’t have to be as dismal as it’s been in past years. So where do we stand as A10 play starts?

*An important note, it’s too early to say exactly what a team needs to get in but I will be making rough estimates based on my experience with the A10 and college basketball.

Solidly In The Field: Dayton

Dayton is the only A10 team solidly in the field at the moment, as they’re currently the final 8 seed in Bracket Matrix, 13 spots above the at-large cut line, and included in every single bracket. Looking at their resume, they’re 10-2, with 2 Q1 losses the only blemishes, boast 3 Q1 victories, and are 3-2 v Q1/Q2 with no bad losses. That is a stellar resume, befitting a team firmly in the field of 68. The only negative one can find with their resume is a lack of a Q1A win, that could hold their seeding back a tiny bit but is otherwise negligible at the moment. The Flyers also boast both stellar result-based metrics (10th in Strength of Record and 13th in KPI) and predictive measures (25th in NET, 35th in BPI, and 37th in KenPom). With their excellent non-conference season Dayton has earned themselves quite a bit of wriggle room and a 14-4 A10 record should be more than enough to get them in comfortably on selection Sunday, probably as a single digit seed.

In the Conversation: Saint Joseph’s

Again, only one A10 team occupies this slot and this time it’s the Saint Joseph’s Hawks. The Hawks enter A10 play at 10-3 with the two best wins per NET in the conference. The first of those wins was on the road against Philly rival #28 Villanova and the second was at home against #27 Princeton. Those are both currently Q1 wins but Princeton needs to stay in the top 30 to be a Q1 win, which could be tricky because the Ivy League is a lower-level conference. Princeton staying top 30 and Nova doing well in the Big East could be crucial for this Philly school’s NCAA Tournament hopes. For now though the Hawks have 2 Q1 wins, are 2-2 v Q1/Q2, and have 1 bad loss. Unfortunately that loss was really bad, of the Q4 variety. That blemish alone will not sink the Hawks, the committee has shown that it will give you a mulligan if you have a few good wins, but that loss is why Saint Joseph’s is currently in most “next four out” lists instead of in the field. The Hawks’ various metrics speak to this reality as well as they’re 61st in KPI and 65th in SOR (the result-based metrics) and 53rd in NET, 65th in BPI, and 71st in KenPom (the predictive metrics). With the right combination of wins and losses a 14-4 Conference Play record will likely get the Hawks into the first four or last four byes. Luckily for the Hawks, this year’s A10 will provide multiple resume building opportunities and not an onerous number of landmines. Specifically, Saint Joseph’s starts A10 play with 4 Q3/Q4 games (at Rhode Island, at Saint Louis, Loyola Chicago at home, and La Salle at home). If they win those 4 games comfortably expect the Hawks to start showing up IN the field on most mock brackets but lose one and it’ll be a much tougher row to hoe.

Clean Team Sheets, Not Much Else: Duquesne, George Mason, Saint Bonaventure, George Washington*

As the title implies, these four schools did an admirable job keeping their team sheets clean largely clean but don’t have anything close to a significant win that would propel them into the field at the moment. For all three, wins en masse are less important than the right combination of wins. Specifically, all three need Q1 wins to get into the picture.

Starting with George Mason, they’re 10-2 with 1 Q2 win and 1 “bad” loss (the other loss was Q1 to Tennessee, making them 1-1 v Q1/Q2). The loss was on a neutral court to NET #113 Charlotte though so it’s as non-offensive as “bad” losses go. The result-based metrics are ok, 64th in KPI and 49th in SOR, and the Predictive Metrics are a bit lagging at 76 in NET, 101 in KenPom, and 121 BPI. Overall the Patriots have a lot of work to do if they want an at-large bid but they’ve put themselves in position to make a legit run at it thanks to their really solid season so far. Unfortunately for their at-large hopes, George Mason has a very favorable A10 schedule which hurts their chances to rack up signature wins. In fact, they play the other top 6 projected teams in the A10 just once each and all but one of them at home. Overall, they’re in a much more advantageous position to finish Top 4 and secure a double bye than they’re to build an at-large resume. Still, winning will do it and if they can knock off Dayton or Saint Joseph’s (in Philly) the conversation changes rapidly.

Duquesne is in a pretty similar position presently as George Mason. They are 10-3, 0-2 v Q1, have 1 Q2 win, and have just 1 “bad loss”. As with George Mason, that “bad loss” was against a top 120 team on a neutral court and is about as inoffensive as it gets. The metrics are also fine for this team as well: 51st in KPI, 80th in NET, 83, in SOR, 91st in KenPom, and 93rd in BPI. As I said with the Patriots, the Dukes have a lot of work to do to earn their way into the field, but they’ve played well enough to make a real run at it. The big difference for Duquesne is that they have a VERY difficult conference schedule as they get Dayton AND Saint Joseph’s twice each as well Saint Bonaventure twice. Right now those 6 games would be 3 Q1 opportunities and 3 Q2 opportunities. Additionally, Duquesne has to go on the road to play George Mason and VCU (fellow double bye contenders) as well. Thanks to their insanely difficult A10 schedule Duquesne has a real chance to build a viable at-large resume. If they can just split those 8 games and win most of the other games they’re favored in they will be largely blemish free with at least 3 Q1 wins and a .500ish record against Q1/Q2. Historically that’s good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. All their goals and dreams are right in front of them.

When Saint Bonaventure lost to Canisius to home in one of their first games the sky sort of felt like it was falling, but flash forward a few months and Canisius turned out to be a pretty good basketball team, currently 129th in NET. That means that the 9-3 Bonnies have just 1 bad loss and it’s a largely inoffensive Q3 loss that wouldn’t keep them out of the NCAA Tournament by itself. Unfortunately the Bonnies are also 0-2 v Q1 and haven’t played a Q2 game. The metrics don’t hate this team though as they’re 94th and 80th in the Result-Based Metrics, 67th in NET, and 78th in both Predictive Metrics. All in all, the computers think that this is a solid team, and I would agree. Looking at their conference slate they have a GIANT opportunity to pick up a signature victory when they go to Dayton February 2nd. Otherwise they have a lot of Q2 games on the schedule that could swing towards Q1. Right now it feels like their best hope is to beat Dayton at Dayton, but we need to see how things unfold before making a definitive statement. All in all, the Bonnies have a real chance even if it is likely a difficult path.

George Washington has a similar record to the two aforementioned schools, but they’ve won their games a lot closer, and they don’t have a Q1 or Q2 win to their name. Due to this, the Revolutionaries do not have good metrics. They’re 141st in NET, 230th in BPI, 175th in KenPom, 106th in KPI, and 79th in SOR. Those are pretty bleak metrics for a 10-2 squad. That said, the resume is pretty clean. GW is 0-1 v Q1, hasn’t played a Q2 opponent, and has 1 Q3 loss. The Q3 loss is to #132 UIC on a neutral court, which alone wouldn’t keep them out of the NCAA Tournament. GW’s A10 slate falls sort of in between George Mason’s and Duquesne’s as it’s balanced. GW has to go to Saint Joseph’s and Dayton but the only projected top 6 team they get twice is George Mason. If this team can start beating bad teams with authority and pick up a Q1 win they’ll officially enter the conversation because otherwise their team sheet is pretty clean, but right now their metrics are keeping them a fair bit away from the field.

Good Teams, Tough Resumes: VCU, UMass

It is no secret that VCU played its first 10 or so games without 2 of its best players, Joe Bamisile and Sean Bairstow, but after a few months and a Court decision the Rams get both back for conference play. The problem is that the Rams lost every good opportunity without those two. They’re 8-5 overall and 0-1 v Q1, 0-3 v Q2, and even have an unsightly Q4 home loss to Norfolk state. The Selection Committee takes into account injuries and suspensions, but it would be unprecedented for them to blanket throw out an entire non-conference schedule of results. That said, their 87th ranking in both NET and KenPom with just two games at full strength portends a successful A10 season. For that reason, VCU is probably better off focusing its energy on running through the A10 than it is worrying about any at-large hopes.

It’s on record that I have no idea what I’m doing but when I watch UMass I see a good team. This much is backed up by a top 100 NET ranking and a meteoric rise of over 100 spots on KenPom since the season started. That said, this team is not close to the field right now thanks to 3 Q3 losses. One of those is to a top #110 team on a neutral court and can be explained away but the losses to Harvard at Home and Towson on the road are harder to do so. The Minutemen are also hampered by the fact that in spite of winning 9 games they haven’t played a single Q1/Q2 team yet. If UMass can beat Duquesne at home and Dayton on the road to start A10 play the conversation around the program will change drastically and rapidly, but right now they are not in the at-large hunt.

Unrealistic, but Technically Alive: Davidson and Richmond

Davidson is 8-3 in D1 games, they’re 0-2 v Q1, 1-0 v Q2, and have 1 bad, Q3 loss. One positive for the Cats is their win against Maryland on a neutral court is just a few spots from rising into the 2nd quadrant. At that point Davidson would have a solid NIT resume but the metrics and signature wins just aren’t there for a young Cats team in a transitional season. This is much more likely a fringe top 100 team than it is an at-large contender. Technically the at-large hopes aren’t dead, but I would not call them alive in any real sense either.

Richmond is 8-5 in DI games and all 5 losses came against Q1 and Q2 opponents. Luckily for the Spiders they don’t have a bad loss either. That technically keeps them alive, but it would take quite the conference season to get them into the at-large picture. As with Davidson I think we are looking at a solid team but not an at-large contender.

  Dead: La Salle, Loyola, Fordham, Saint Louis, Rhode Island

SLU has 1 Q2 win but they also have 2 Q2 losses and no Q1 wins. Adding to their misery is a 223rd NET Ranking and 200 rankings in both BPI and KenPom.

La Salle has a Q4 loss, a Q3 loss, and no Q1/Q2 wins. They’re also 209 in NET and 211 in KenPom.

Loyola has 1 Q2 win but 3 Q3 losses and no Q1 win. Their NET and Predictive Metrics numbers are much better than the prior two schools but still in the mid-100s range.

Fordham has a Q2 win but also has 3 Q3 losses, 3 Q4 losses, and 0 Q1 wins. Their NET and Predictive Metrics are also sub-200.

Rhode Island has no Q1/Q2 wins, 2 Q3 losses, and 1 Q4 losses. They are sub-200 in NET and both Predictive Metrics.