Breaking Through

Davidson welcomed last-place Fordham to Belk Arena on Saturday and while the Cats comfortably controlled the game from start to finish, they could never quite pull away from the struggling Rams. For fans, it is was a familiar story; the offense felt stagnant at times, the defense had moments where it looked scattered, and a parade of small mental mistakes gifted Fordham 2 points here and a mini 4 or 5-0 run there. This season has undoubtedly been a success so far and is trending towards the exact benchmarks we asked for preseason, but the fact that the same issues keep arising is worrisome. It feels like this team has a hard ceiling around the Top 100 and 7th in the A10. Achieving these benchmarks alone is undoubtedly a success, but this gives the team very little margin-for-error; one stinker against Richmond or losing two hard-fought 50/50 games and suddenly we are looking at another pillow fight appearance. So how can this team breakthrough the mire and level up?

The easiest answer is to point at the defense. Regardless of where you look, the defense grades out roughly average across DI; ranking 179th on KenPom and 159th on T-Rank. Now the defense has definitely improved over the past month, rising by about 40 spots on KenPom, fueled by Matt McKillop's commitment to use the 1-3-1 zone more. It also felt like Matt McKillop found something when he used Manie Joses at the top of the zone against Duquesne, which completely turned that game around. The problem is that we haven't seen that Manie-Zone look since and Sean Logan, our best defender by a country mile according to the analytics and the lynchpin of our standard defensive system, has officially been ruled out for the season. Long story short, it feels as if the defense has more or less found its level.

In a similar vein, it's tough to point at the mental mistakes and just assume that the team will cut them out. You can see this in the fact that the team is still conceding the double-digit runs that had us so worried in non-conference play. For example, George Mason went on 16-6 and 12-3 runs against us in a game we lost by 12, Duquesne went on a 17-2 run in a game we won by 6, and Fordham ripped off a 21-10 run in a game we won by 10. As you can see, these moments where the team falls completely out of sync have caused closer games instead of blowouts against lesser teams, blowouts instead of 50/50 games against teams considered just a tier or so above us, and painful losses against teams we largely outplayed (see: Temple game). It's small stuff too, like giving weak fouls that lead to and-1s, poor shot selection that can swing momentum, missing free throws, and losing focus on defense that leads to a poor contest and easy look. It is especially frustrating, because we have seen what this team is capable of when they do play a full 40 minutes a la the Providence game; but that effort seems like an outlier instead of the norm. I would love to be wrong though and see this team just click and start putting together 40 minute performance after 40 minute performance.

Finally, we arrive to the offense. The offense has been good this season; ranked 90th on KenPom and 70th on T-Rank. It feels like there is more meat on the bone though; as the team falls back on iso-ball just a little too much instead of sticking to the hard-cutting and 3 point shooting that has epitomized Davidson Basketball for the better part of three decades. In particular, it feels like we are missing a chance to raise the ceiling of the offense by not shooting more threes. This is borne out by the statistics as well, as the Cats are 59th in the country in 3 point FG% but have taken just the 194th most 3s in the nation. Hammering the point home even more, the Cats are taking around 40% of their shots from 3, almost identical to last season when the team shot just 31.4% from 3 (310th in the country). The 3 point shooting has leveled up considerably, so too should the amount of 3s this team takes! In A10 play, the team has shot just 20 3s per game, well below their season average, even though they've made almost 40% of them. There is no reason why the Cats shouldn't be taking more 3s, especially when the offense churns out good look after good look from deep and the team has multiple above average to elite shooters in the rotation.

Even more, the Cats have looked their most potent when they are taking 3s and cutting aggressively. For years opposing teams would try to bully us physically or out-athlete our guys. Davidson would burn those teams with beautiful ball movement and off-ball screens that led to open 3s and then when teams got overly aggressive trying to take the 3 away the Cats would kill them with back-cuts that lead to countless open layups. Instead, it feels like this team relies just a touch too much on iso-plays, which don't work as well against the better teams, athletically and overall, we face in A10 play. This exact scenario played out against George Mason, who is athletically imposing and dynamite on defense. When the team cut hard and took 3s the game was competitive, when we ditched our system and fell back on iso-ball George Mason dominated the gameplay. It's probably way too simplistic, but it really does feel like this team could raise its ceiling considerably by shooting more from deep and remaining committed to the aggressive cutting instead of falling back on iso-ball.

As we like to say at the Belk Report, this team has found that extra 5% that last year's team desperately needed as it lost seemingly every close game in A10 play. That said, the ceiling of this team does not feel all that different from last year's and while finishing in the Top 100 and above the A10 pillow fight is inarguably a success there is more meat on the bone. And while it's tough to imagine the defense getting much better without Sean Logan or the lapses in focus going away completely, there is a very real argument that this team is not taking advantage enough of a significant strength, it's 3 point shooting and the hard-cutting that feeds off of that shooting. For Davidson to raise its ceiling, compete for a top 6 seed, and make a run in the A10 tournament it may as simple as leaning more into the best 3 point shooting attack in the A10.