Breakout Candidates

With Foster Loyer graduating, Sam Mennenga going pro, and Des Waston transferring Davidson is losing about 95 minutes, 41 points, 32 shots, 15 rebounds, and 7 assists per game from last season. That’s over 50% of last season’s points and shot attempts, and about 50% of last season’s rebounds and assists. On top of that, Foster, Sam, and Des were the team’s first, second, and third options, evidenced by their usage rates, all above 20%, being the three highest on the team. Foster and Sam were relied upon on offensive particularly heavily, as their usage rates approached 30%. Whether or not losing all this production and the offensive focal points from a team that finished 140th in the nation in KenPom is a good or bad thing can be debated, but it is beyond question that all of this attrition firmly and widely opens the door for a few players to break out and step up into much bigger roles. The question becomes who?

If you ask those in the media or around the Davidson Basketball program the most obvious breakout candidate is Angelo Brizzi. Brizzi is an exciting talent, and although he did not produce much during his season and a half at Villanova (one of which was spent redshirting) he’s got all the tools to become an exceptional player at Davidson College. In a positive sign, word from those close to the program was that he was one of the team's best players during spring semester practices last year and would've started if immediately eligible. We’ve written a lot about Brizzi this offseason though and there is no need to belabor the point. If you want to read more about him check out any of the recent articles we've written previewing this upcoming season's team or recapping another busy offseason; simply, Brizzi is going to be a HUGE part of whatever happens in 2023/24. That’s why we want to offer a returning player on the roster we think will take a leap and be a key contributor this upcoming season. We think that player is going to be 6'11 Forward Reed Bailey.

Bailey was a 4-star recruit out of high school, he’s 6’11 but moves and has the skills of a guard, and he was one of the rare Davidson players who started from day one. In his freshman season Bailey played about 23 minutes per game and averaged about 6 points, 3 rebounds, and 1 assist per game on 35% 3-point shooting and 54% 2-point shooting. The advanced statistics say he was a positive on the offensive end, but a negative on the defensive end. The defensive end can be explained pretty easily though as Bailey was forced to guard much more experienced big men that had significant strength advantages over him. Bailey also struggled with defensive positioning at times, nothing out of the ordinary for a freshman that was asked to cover a lot of ground on the defensive end. With a full year of playing experience Bailey should be much more comfortable in the defensive system and his defensive awareness should be much improved. With his instincts sharpened and the game moving at a slower pace for him, Bailey’s defensive positioning should not only be improved but he should also be able to use his fluid mobility and 6’11 length to make more plays on defense. Furthermore, another year in the school’s strength and conditioning program should help Bailey battle down low with bigger opponents. In fact, Bailey was listed at 190 pounds in his recruiting bio and now he’s listed at 210 pounds on Davidson’s official website, that is a significant 20-pound increase in a fairly short period of time. That increased strength should also do wonders for him on the boards as well.

On offense Bailey’s lower point totals are not concerning when one looks under the hood. First off, he flashed an impressive array of skills. We were not exaggerating when we said he has guard-like abilities at 6'11; he can put the ball on the floor and attack off the bounce, he has range all the way out to the 3 point arc, and he can finish athletically at the rim. That's why we think his suppressed production was a result of his role not his abilities. To the lay viewer it appeared that Bailey operated in a smaller, more restricted role where he wasn’t asked to do much. The numbers back this up as he had a usage rate under 15%, good for 6th on the team, just higher than Connor Kochera’s. This type of sheltered role makes sense for a freshman big thrust into the starting lineup straight out of high school. In fact, his stats aren’t all that different from past Davidson big men that were asked to start as freshman. In 2020/21 Sam Mennenga averaged 6/5/1 on 48% shooting from 2 and 23% from 3 and in 2014/15 Peyton Aldridge averaged 9/5/2 on 52% 2-point shooting and 39% from 3. Going even further back, De’Mon Brooks averaged 9/5/1 on 55% shooting from 2 and 36% from 3 as a freshman in 2010/11. All three of these players ultimately made all-conference teams and the latter two won Player of the Year in their respective conferences. This sort of precedent for Davidson bigs coupled with efficient shooting splits indicate that not only will Reed be trusted with a bigger role next season, but that he will also likely be able to take advantage of the increased opportunity and his production will increase in kind.

It’s also important to look at the teams that surrounded these freshman bigs. Brooks’ freshman season was in the SoCon, and that Davidson team was a top 4 team in the conference that season on KenPom. Sam and Peyton were also surrounded by much better teams than Reed was. In fact, Sam’s freshman team finished in the top 70 on KenPom and was a 2 seed in the NIT while Peyton’s finished 36th in the country, won the A10, and made the NCAA Tournament as an at-large. If you’ve read our article highlighting how different this upcoming season’s team will look on offense you will know that the Cats will once again be able to return to the offenses we are accustomed to and field 4, even 5 above average 3-point shooters on the floor at all times, opening up more open shots and cutting lanes for the offense. Getting to play in a better offense with more shooters should be a boon to Bailey’s numbers.

Finally, there were also multiple games that gave you a glimpse of Bailey’s potential. There was the 20-point outburst on 7/11 shooting (1/2 from 3) against a borderline top-100 San Francisco squad, the 15-point performance on 6/9 shooting in the double overtime thriller against Wright State, the 15/5/2 performance on 5/7 shooting against Fordham (a squad that finished in the top 100 defensively on KenPom), and he averaged 8 and 6 against A10 Champs VCU in 3 games. The evidence is there, with more consistency, a bigger role, and increased strength and experience Reed Bailey looks primed to breakout and become a central figure in Davidson’s 2023/24 season.

We would also be remiss if we didn’t touch upon Sean Logan, another player we think can breakout for the Cats in 2023/24. However, we think that Logan’s breakout will come on the defensive end. Logan stands at 6’10 with a wingspan that is seemingly endless; Petey Buckets, a popular A10 twitterer, even remarked that Logan “is what happens when you give Bob McKillop the create-a-player option.” Coupled with his insane length, Logan also possesses some of the best shot blocking instincts we have ever seen at Davidson, a sentiment echoed by Head Coach Matt McKillop. We’ve talked at length about this and if you’re interested in Logan’s potential defensive impact read our article previewing the team’s defense for the upcoming season. Long story short, if Logan has added strength over the offseason and is more comfortable in the system (basically along the same lines as Reed Bailey) then he could anchor Davidson’s defense in the middle and singlehandedly ameliorate Davidson’s non-existent rim protection, a problem that was Davidson’s primary deficiency last season.