Know the Foe: Davidson at La Salle

Glaser Arena, 6:30 PM, ESPN+

KenPom: La Salle -1 (50%)

T-Rank: Davidson -1.5 (56%)

Vegas: Davidson -1.5

To steal a stat from our last Pod episode, the Davidson Wildcats have won 5 consecutive men's basketball games against La Salle, with a resounding average margin of victory of roughly 15 points. As a result, it might seem wild to say this is probably the most important game of Davidson's season so far (at least until the next one).

But times change, coaches change, and arenas change. La Salle just pulled out a shocking road win over St. Bonaventure just when it seemed their season was on the outs. They looked excellent during their 4-0 start, and you'd be forgiven for thinking they were a Wagon. The trendline for their game scores then did this:

On the other side, Davidson would love to head to Kingston at 3-1 in the A10 for their contest against a hobbled URI team. Anything can happen in a midweek road game in this league. Can the 'Cats make it 6 straight? Or does La Salle have life once more?

Team Profile

Genuine question: how many A10 teams could Fran Dunphy coach to the NCAA Tournament this year? Dayton, VCU, and St. Joe's all feel like an obvious "yes." Bona, SLU, and Mason aren't quite the same slam dunks in terms of roster construction, but you'd think he could. He's just that good.

If you need proof that La Salle is extremely well coached, have a look at their shot volume numbers. Like a lot of Dunphy teams, they hardly ever turn the basketball over, and their rebounding margin is one of the A10's best. They especially do well on the defensive glass -- as Dunphy's best teams at Temple and Penn normally did. The only A10 team that keeps opponents off the boards as well as they do? Davidson -- also at a 26.3% OR% allowed.

So, it's a battle of 2 teams who rarely turn it over and excel on the defensive glass. Make no mistake, though -- there's plenty of differences.

OFFENSE

Certified Bucket Getter Corey McKeithan is averaging 16.8 a game this year, and he looks like a different player than the one who transferred to La Salle from Rider. Last year he shot 35% from deep on 92 total attempts; this year, he's quickly become the true number one option, shooting 39% from deep on over 6 attempts a game. Basically anyone in this offense is empowered to shoot at will -- La Salle's average possession length on O sits at a brisk 16.8 seconds -- but McKeithan is the one most likely to go on a tear. He will pull without hesitation, even with a hand in his face. Why? Because he's good.

If there's any knock on McKeithan, it's that he rarely gets to the rim. He takes a lot of midrange twos, which is certainly aesthetically pleasing, but at the cost of only being 17-31 at the rim on the year. Not bad for a barely 6 foot guard, but you'd probably like for some of those pullups to be more high percentage looks. To be fair, though, he's gone 37-81 (46%) on said long twos, which is very good.

There are two salient issues with the rest of La Salle's offense. The first is that much of the rest of the roster shoots long twos like McKeithan without the efficiency. As a whole, the team is 104-273 (38%) on midrange twos, dragging their overall 2PT% down to 47.2%, which is sub-300. This isn't exactly shocking for a Dunphy team: the last two seasons, La Salle was 281st and 209th in Shot Quality's Rim and Three rate at 77% and 79%. If you're a repeat reader (thanks!), you know I love the midrange. But in healthy doses.

The second problem is that they've lacked a true point guard for most of the season. Unlike a lot of Dunphy teams, which popped the ball around and regularly had assist rates over 60%, La Salle's AST/FGM this year sits at 43%, which is bottom 30 in the nation. The answer at point seems to have arrived in Eric Acker, the LIU transfer who made his first appearance for the Explorers against UNC in the Dean Dome. He's the only player averaging 3 assists a game, though that's in a mere 6 appearances. Even then, I would still call Acker more of a score-first point. You can see flashes of him turning into a great scorer in this league (39% from deep!), but I'm not ready to say he's on McKeithan's level without a larger sample. He's not starting thanks to reigning A10 Rookie of the Week Deuce Jones's presence in the starting 5.

Jones is a wildcard. The talent is obvious, but he plays like a freshman, as freshmen usually do. He has 5 games with 15 or more but just as many with 4 or less. He gets to the rim more and draws more fouls than any of La Salle's other guards, but he's also prone to missing long jumpers, going 10-37 (27%) on far twos this year. He's gone 9-33 (27%) from distance, but, to his credit, one of those nine was banked in at the buzzer to beat St. Bonaventure.

Another issue with La Salle's shot selection is it gets them to the FT line less than anyone else in the A10, sans Fordham. Their FTr is at 30.4% on the season, but in 3 A10 games it's at an especially concerning 22.2%.

Dunphy having good guards isn't surprising. Last year there was Brickus and Brantley. (Remember Mark Tyndale and Dionte Christmas? Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore?) This team's group is more isolation oriented and, as we've explored, isn't swinging the ball around like his best teams (Brickus is off averaging nearly 6 assists for Villanova). The big rotation is a bit thinner, with Demetrius Lilley playing the role of a 6'9" small ball, stretch center. 3.4 of his 8 FGA a game come from beyond the arc, where he's shot 31% on the year. His willingness to shoot from deep is especially impressive when you consider he shot exactly one three in his two years at Penn St. While Lilley will post up as La Salle's guards run around the perimeter, his pick and pop usage is also very high. His spacing opens up room for the guards get to their spots -- although, as we've said, the shot making itself has been inconsistent. La Salle will have him set high screens to get the guards downhill, and he's about an equal threat to pop or roll. The only player in the rotation who absolutely will not attempt a three is backup big Mac Etienne, and the Explorers' spacing is notably worse with him on the floor. However, he lives in the post when he's out there because he's an excellent 26-34 at the rim on the year. Also, both of these guys are very capable on the offensive glass. Lilley has great instincts and the reach to tap boards out, which is why his OR% sits at 10.1%.

Rounding out the starting 5 are W Daeshon Shepherd and F Jahlil White. La Salle uses Shepherd quite often as a PnR screener, but he'll often flare or pop to the corner. You can get away with helping off of him a bit, as he's at 12-41 (29%) from three, but he's La Salle's best slasher and a legit above the rim finisher as a roll man. He's 15-17 on dunks and 36-59 on close twos. If he takes a long two or three, that's good news. If White is the guy shooting, then Davidson will probably live with that as well. He's put up a 44.5 eFG% and shot just 15 threes: his value is primarily on the other end.

Now comes the part of the article where I say Davidson's 1-3-1 zone might be a good answer on defense. I am curious to see how much the Cats use it. We didn't see it much against Fordham, and we didn't see Manie Joses minutes at all. However, the Rams play Brexit Ball, and Davidson had little issue guarding them straight up (at least in the first half...). A 1-3-1 certainly opens up the elbows and corners, but I'm also good with an Explorer not named Acker or McKeithan (or Jones on a hot night) shooting a jumper. Lilley is also capable of getting hot from deep, but I think you generally live with him shooting threes. Fortunately, there is precedent for La Salle getting zoned; Loyola mixed in a 3-2 and had real success doing so. The Explorers won't really turn it over, but you can get them to settle for "is that the shot?" shots.

DEFENSE

If you want to know why White starts, just look at his defensive metrics. He has very quick hands and gets his share of steals -- he's 4th in the A10 in steal%. He can guard multiple positions at 6'7". I'd wager he's going to draw Bobby Durkin, which is going to be an entertaining battle. Box plus minus confirms the eye test here with a 2.2 DBPM, which is best on the team by far. One thing to watch: he commits 4.7 fouls per 40 minutes, which is just the price you pay for being aggressive. He's fouled out 3 times this year, including against the Bonnies. In the other 2 A10 matchups, he's finished with 4. He'll be pretty active hampering Wildcats off the ball...provided he can stay in the game.

Of the guards, Jones is the best defender. He also has very active hands and grabs steals at a similar rate to White. Again, his 1.0 DBPM agrees with the eye test. The others are...not as good. Acker is at a -1.2 DBPM, which feels harsh but also expected for a guy jumping right into A10 play from the NEC. McKeithan's also at a negative -- albeit a slight one at -0.5. But it's basically always tough for low major guards to defend well immediately after jumping a level. Both McKeithan and Jones rebound about as well as you'd expect a 6'2" guard to. Davidson has a big length advantage here with Loughnane, Laput, and Kochera.

La Salle's interior defense has struggled. The beefy Lilley is absolutely an elite rebounder (23rd nationally in DR%!). However, he's not got the vertical to make up for his shorter height in rim protection. His defensive metrics are thus not good; he's at a -1.5 DPBM. Etienne is also not a standout on the defensive end, and he commits a quite high 5.3 fouls per 40. La Salle will have to decide whether to play Reed Bailey straight up. Temple did so, and Bailey proved too mobile for their centers en route to 25 points.

The result of all this is that La Salle's opponents have shot 62.2% on close twos and 54.7% on twos overall. That is...not good, and it's the worst 2PT defense in the A10 by a fair margin. The good news for Davidson is that we're a good 2PT shooting team and are still 11-1 when hitting 50% of our twos or better, with the only loss to Gonzaga. La Salle, on the other hand, is 4-6 when their opponent has been above 50% from two, including 0-3 against the A10.

Schematically, La Salle won't necessarily press. They can: they'll just give you a token press more often. They make up for a lack of forced turnovers by being a great defensive rebounding team, which makes their shot volume numbers one of the best in the A10. This is also good news for Davidson, who is 7-1 with a TO% below 15% (again, the one is Gonzaga).

Game Keys

Pace, of course. Much like Temple, La Salle is a perimeter oriented team that gets up and down the court. Davidson is not, and the 'Cats' best performances have been in lower possession games where they execute in the half court. The Providence game had only 61 possessions total, and the Temple game that Davidson controlled 90% of had 63. It's not that Davidson can't win a more up tempo game -- it's just that a more uptempo game like the one against Fordham discourages our offensive principles.

Davidson is also built to exploit teams with weak interior defense. Cut, cut cut. La Salle will have their hands full with Reed Bailey, so let's get back to our roots of punishing teams who dare to press or double by going backdoor.

Matchup wise, I feel better about this one for Davidson after finishing the article. I'd still say it's a coin flip, but outside of having a big Shot Volume advantage it's going to be tough for La Salle to exploit Davidson. The Cats have a size advantage on the perimeter, and if they can keep the Explorers off the glass, La Salle will need a good shooting night to win. Time will tell if their wild win in Olean marks the start of a hot streak or makes them due for an off night.

Predictions:

1. Reed Bailey his second 25 point game in Philly -- and gets someone on the Explorers to foul out early.

2. One of the Explorer guards goes on a big run on their own, even as the rest of the team cools off from distance.

3. Davidson handles pressure well, and gets a W -- narrowly. 73, 69.