Matt McKillop and the Art of Adjustments

For opposing teams, the best way to beat Davidson this season is by packing the paint and daring everyone except Foster Loyer to shoot threes. Yes, you read that statement correctly. So far this season Davidson has primarily run a 7-man rotation, of those 7 just 2 are above average three-point shooters; Foster Loyer, 46% on almost 8 attempts per game, and Freshman Reed Bailey, who is shooting 45.5% on just 1.4 threes per game. After that, Sophomore wing Connor Kochera is about average, shooting 34% on almost 6 attempts per game. Other than those three, no one on Davidson is shooting better than 30% from 3-point distance. As a team Davidson is shoots about 36% from 3 on 22 attempts per game, that percentage is good for just 113th in the country. If you remove Foster Loyer Davidson is shooting just 30.7% from 3 on 14 attempts per game. Just how much of a deviation is this from past seasons? Last year Davidson was the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the country and had 4 guys who shot above 40% from 3 and 2 more players who shot better than 37% from 3. Clearly, we just do not have the shooters we typically have.

A large reason we have a dearth of shooting is because we lost Hyunjung Lee and Michael Jones sooner than we thought we would. Lee of course had to chase his NBA dream before he is conscripted to serve in the Korean Military in a few years and Michael Jones unexpectedly had 2 post-grad years instead of 1 thanks to the covid year, so it made sense for him to use that extra eligibility to get a graduate degree from Stanford. Both situations are entirely understandable, and all Davidson fans support those two young men completely. That does not change the fact though that Matt McKillop was dealt with quite the hand in his first season as coach. On top of those two former standouts leaving early, Matt has also had to deal with having just 9 scholarship players on the roster. Coach McKillop has the roster he has and he has had to adjust the offense to fit its strengths. For a lot of first-time head coaches adjusting on the fly like this could be quite difficult, but Matt McKillop has done so expertly and the statistics back that up. In fact, in spite of the lack of adept long-distance shooters the advanced metrics think quite highly of Matt McKillop’s offense: KenPom ranks Davidson’s offense 58th in the nation, T-Rank has it at 65th, and Evan Miya is even more bullish at 49th. That is not as good as last year but still pretty good considering what Matt McKillop is replacing from last year’s NCAA Tournament team.

So what adjustments has the Davidson Head Basketball Coach made to produce these results? I will never claim to be a basketball Xs and Os expert, but I have noticed a few surface level things. First, while the Davidson Motion Offense system is renowned for its off-ball screens, it has never really emphasized on-ball screens (think pick and rolls). That has changed this season. At least to my eye, Davidson has run more on-ball screens than ever before. This has taken advantage of the dynamic duo that is the two-man game between Foster Loyer at point guard and Sam Mennenga at center. This type of action takes advantage of Foster’s incredible awareness and basketball IQ and Sam’s plus athleticism for a big. Furthermore, Foster’s elite, elite 3-point shooting and range forces the opposing defender to go over screens, making this action and combo even more deadly. Secondly, we also seem to be attacking the rim much more than in year’s past. Des Watson, Sam Mennenga, Reed Bailey, Connor Kochera, and Grant Huffman all look very good attacking the rim and the results have borne that out. This increased pressure on the rim has also led to far more free throw attempts than we’ve ever shot before. In fact, Davidson is currently shooting 25 free throws per game, good for 21st in the country. The last time we shot more than 20 free throws per game in a season was 2013/14, our last season in the SoCon. This massive uptick in trips to the charity stripe has compensated for the lack of elite 3-point shooting and is likely the main reason the offense has performed as well as it has.

There is another interesting note about this year’s offense as well. Last year, when the Cats needed a basket and the 3s were not falling Bob McKillop was able to go to Luka Brajkovic down low. Luka then would take advantage of the offense’s excellent spacing and back down his man and more often than not convert (or get to the free throw line). This did not require Bob McKillop to make any specific adjustments besides yelling “get it to Luka”, a favorite pastime of mine (and many other Davidson fans). Matt McKillop and the 2022 Cats do not have that same luxury or safety blanket. Davidson just does not have any true back to the basket bigs. Sam Mennenga is solid at the skill and does it a few times per game, but he is far more effective scoring in other ways. For example, he had a dominant stretch against Charlotte where he faced up his defender and basically drove on or attacked them from the mid-range to the basket. To me, this just reinforces the job Matt McKillop has done scheming up an effective offensive gameplan within the typical Davidson Motion Offense.

What does this all mean going forward? Well first off, I think this speaks volumes about Matt McKillop. We have talked a lot about Bob McKillop’s famous motion offense, but when faced with tough circumstances, Matt has adjusted the offense significantly, tailored the game plan to his roster’s abilities, and produced good results! Secondly, I have fully gotten on board with fellow Belk Reporter, Joe’s analysis and gameplan: shoot less 3s! At first I scoffed at Joe’s take, yes we should not take 25-30 per game but we still needed to shoot them to keep our floor spacing. I also just thought that the system could not operate without shooting a critical mass of threes. Yet somehow, Matt McKillop has made the right adjustments so that we can take as few as 13 3s in a game and still run the same offensive system we all know and love. In fact, according to T-Rank in Davidson’s two best games they shot just 28 3s combined. Going forward it is imperative that the team sticks to Matt McKillop’s adjustments and continues attacking the basket and getting to the line.