November Takeaways

On Sunday we recapped how Davidson finished November 5-2, today we try to glean what we can from 1 month and 7 games.

Davidson's "Big 3"

So far this season Davidson has been led on offense by Reed Bailey (17.4 ppg), Connor Kochera (16.3 ppg), and Bobby Durkin (15.6 ppg), who are scoring almost ⅔ of Davidson's points this season. Kochera and Bailey in particular have been tasked with creating offense on their own, sporting usage rates north of 25%. The three also have complementary skillsets that elevate each of their games when all three share the court, and the Cats can look lost when two or more of the trio are sitting. That said, Davidson is far from dead if any of the big three have a quiet night; Zach Laput and Roberts Blums are averaging 8 and 7 ppg in their own right and have each had multiple double-digit scoring games. As both guards continue to improve over the course of the season, expect them to take some of the burden off of Bailey, Kochera, and Durkin.

Offense and Defense Flipped

This offseason Davidson lost, among others, Angelo Brizzi and Grant Huffman, two fast, athletic guards that spearheaded the Cats top 90 defense. As a result, we knew that Davidson would take a step back on defense but the hope was that by bringing in Laput and Blums while giving more responsibility to Mike Loughnane and Kochera, all guards known more for their offense and shooting, we would improve on an offense that barely finished in the top 200. According to KenPom this exact scenario has played out. Davidson finished 189th on offense last year and 86th on defense, this year the Cats are 86th on offense and 175th on defense. This has largely been a positive trade, as the Cats' net rating is a touch more positive than last year's and are about 12 spots higher in KenPom than where they finished last year.

The turnaround on offense can be largely attributed to much better cutting and ball movement and much improved shooting, while maintaining the ability to get to the rim and draw fouls. Looking at the numbers, the Cats are averaging 4.5 more assists than they did last year and have climbed from 230th in the country in assists to 44th. That number really embodies how much better this year's team is cutting and running the motion offense than last year's team did. This recommitment to their identity has not cost the Cats their newfound ability to get to the free throw line though. In fact, Davidson is getting to the line MORE than they did last year, good for almost 20 times per game so far. Shotmaking also NEEDS to be talked about. Last year the Cats struggled to make shots, finishing the season 271st in FG%, this season the Cats are 98th in the country. Finishing almost 200 spots better in FG% and Assists is REALLY good and shows just how much the offense is better this season... and there's reason to think the team's offense could improve even further.

Three Point Shooting

A lot has been made of Davidson's inept three point shooting the past two seasons, when they finished 270th and 310th nationally in 3pt FG%. This season Davidson is nearly 100 spots higher than they were last year, so long distance shooting has definitely improved but there is still a lot more room to grow. In particular, Zach Laput, Roberts Blums, and Connor Kochera are combining to shoot just 25% from beyond the arc. There are a lot of reasons to think each will improve drastically though, Laput has shot 40% from 3 the past two seasons on almost 5 attempts per game, Kochera shot over 36% from 3 last season on over 4 attempts per game, and Roberts Blums was known as a prolific three point shooter in Europe, highlighted by his 2023 U-18 Euros when he shot 39% from 3 on 9 attempts per game. The point is, there is a lot of reason to think that these three are above average three point shooters and they will start hitting their shots as the season progresses. Those three getting it going from deep, coupled with Mike Loughnane (shooting 41.2% from 3) and Durkin (shooting 46% from 3) continuing their performances so far, will result in Davidson's three point shooting improving even more.

Last Season's Growth Has Carried Over

A10 play last season was a trying couple of months, but two major rays of light were the improved play of Reed Bailey and Connor Kochera. Last season Bailey averaged 17 points and 7 rebounds per game in February and March, up from 10 and 5 during the first three months of the season, while Kochera averaged 17 points in February and March, up from 11 points during the first three months of the season. This season, the February and March versions of Bailey and Kochera have shown up, as Reed is averaging 17/7/3 and Kochera is averaging 16/4/3. These two carrying over their growth from last season is a huge reason why Davidson looks improved so far this season.

New Roles; Better Performances

Finally, almost everyone on Davidson was asked to step into a new role and so far, everyone has done so with aplomb. As described above, Kochera and Bailey have stepped nicely into featured roles. Durkin has also taken massive steps to join and create the big three we talked about at the start of this article. In fact, Bobby has almost doubled his offensive output from 8.5 ppg to 15.6 ppg, he's shooting 46% from 3 (up from 34% last season), and he's more than doubled his trips to the FT line and assists. Zach Laput has settled in nicely as Davidson's spark plug off the bench, making a myriad of winning plays so far this season, scoring points, creating off the dribble and finding open guys for buckets, and fighting for rebounds. Mike Loughnane has settled in nicely in a Rusty Reigel, glue guy type role, shooting over 40% from 3 on multiple attempts per game while playing hard on defense and dishing out 3 assists per game. Blums has filled Grant Huffman's Sophomore role seamlessly, picking up full-court on defense and providing athletic on-ball defense at the point-of-attack, while also providing a scoring punch that feels very close to breaking out. Hunter Adam has performed well as a small-ball 4 in about 15 minutes per night, making Adam-Bailey at the 4 & 5 a viable lineup for Matt McKillop. Finally, the advanced metrics continue to applaud Sean Logan's defense, rating him as the best defender on the team by a wide margin.

Kochera, Bailey, Durkin, Logan, Laput, Blums, Loughnane, and Adam make up Matt McKillop's primary 8-man rotation but Joe Hurlburt, Riccardo Ghedini, and Manie Joses deserve mention too. Hurlburt has looked solid in limited minutes and was a real positive against Gonzaga. It would be huge to have another 7-footer in the rotation if he can play his way into more minutes. Ghedini has performed nicely as well as a change-of-pace option when Matt McKillop wants to switch things up, as Ghedini's 6'7 size coupled with his point guard level passing ability make him an interesting weapon Matt can deploy. Manie Joses has also flashed his athletic ability and looks to be a key piece of Davidson's long-term future.