Reacting to the Preseason Poll: Part I

On Tuesday the A10 had its annual media day at The Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Coaches and players were interviewed, giving their opening arguments for why their program is about to embark on a successful season, and the media voted on how they think the A10 standings will shake out. I am going to react to that preseason poll and make a case for optimism and a case for pessimism for each team. First up are the top 5 teams in the poll: Dayton, VCU, St. Bonaventure, Duquesne, and Saint Joseph’s.

Dayton:

Dayton was picked first in the A10 for the second consecutive season; one big difference is that last season Dayton carried legitimate top 25 expectations while this season I don’t think many have them in their top 50; a true marker of how down the A10 is expected to be. Dayton fans have a few reasons to be very optimistic. First off, 6’10 Center DaRon Holmes II made the surprise decision to forgo the NBA Draft, where he had a chance to be a late first rounder, and return to Dayton for his Junior season. Holmes return is MASSIVE and he's easily the preseason A10 Player of the Year favorite coming off a season where he averaged 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. On top of that, Dayton has a solid core of experienced guards that include Malachi Smith, Kobe Elvis, Koby Brea, and transfer Enoch Cheeks (who averaged 15/4/4 at Robert Morris in 2022/23). If Dayton can stay healthy, which was a major problem last season, and Anthony Grant embraces an up-tempo attack that accentuates his team’s athleticism (and especially his star center’s explosiveness) and experienced guard play instead of the slow, plodding offense they ran last year, Dayton could easily work its way into the at-large conversation at some point this season.

The case against Dayton is that they lose 2 of their 3 highest producers in forwards Toumani Camara and Mustapha Amzil. Toumani Camara in particular did a lot for last year’s Dayton team and some even pegged him, not Holmes, as their best player. Camara was rewarded for his standout season and was picked in the second round of the NBA Draft and looks primed for a good rookie season with the Portland Trailblazers. Dayton lost some other, more rotational pieces as well such as RJ Blakney and Mike Sharavjamts and as a result will have to rely on more unproven guys at the 3 and 4 spots. Last season’s stark underperformance also has many around A10 Twitter questioning Grant’s coaching, so that is something to keep an eye on as well.

VCU:

Coming off a stellar season that saw VCU do the double and win both the A10 Regular Season and Tournament titles, Head Coach Mike Rhoades left for Penn State and took with him A10 POY Ace Baldwin. To add injury to insult, almost every player from last year’s squad transferred or graduated. The only returning player who averaged more than 1.5 points/game is Senior Guard Zeb Jackson. Although, I would be remiss if I didn’t also mention Alphonzo Billups, who was a highly touted recruit out of high school and redshirted last season.

Even though VCU lost almost their entire roster they reloaded with a bang. First, they hired Ryan Odom from Utah State. Odom is a good, proven head coach and his Utah State team last season finished 26-9, 28th on KenPom, 16th on offense, and grabbed a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Right of the bat Odom should be one of the best coaches in the A10. Odom immediately went to work on his roster after being hired and landed some very talented transfers including two key role players (Max Shulga and Sean Bairstow) from his standout Utah State team and highly talented local products (Joe Bamisele, Roosevelt Wheeler, and Jason Nelson). Even though Bamisele will not be eligible to play next season, VCU will have a lot of talent on the bench and on the floor and if it all meshes and comes together then VCU will be as good as usual.

When a program has experienced the level of turnover VCU has in just one offseason there is undeniably some uncertainty though. For example, we don’t know for sure how the former Utah State core will gel with the Richmond, VA core that played AAU together. This is also the first time in a while that VCU hired outside the havoc coaching tree in quite some time as well and Odom’s system is a pretty stark departure from Rhoades’. This means there is going to be a lot of change in Richmond, much more than usual and with wholesale change comes uncertainty. More tangibly VCU also has a lot of question marks at the center spot as they have two players standing at 6'10 or taller and neither has ever averaged more than 9 minutes or 1.6 points per game in their career. If worst comes to worst Odom may be forced to play one of his 4s out of position at the 5, most likely Kuany Kuany. At the end of the day though most will be willing to bet on Odom’s high level coaching ability and the talent the Rams have on the roster to get the job done.

St. Bonaventure:

Coming off a season that followed an unprecedented level of roster turnover (Bona returned virtually 0 production from 2021/22) Mark Schmidt had a much more stable offseason and returns his top 6 rotation players. Not only that, but Bona also added two graduate transfers as well: 6’4 and 6’3 Guards Charles Pride and Mika Adams-Woods. Charles Pride has been a very high-level performer the past 3 season, averaged 16 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals per game, shooting almost 35% from 3, and starting 60 games at Bryant. Pride’s expectations for next season start at being an all-A10 performer. Mika Adams-Woods’ stats are slightly more subdued, but he averaged almost 9/3/3 and started 85 games the past 3 seasons at Cincinnati. Coupled with Daryl Banks, Kyrell Luc, and Moses Flowers St. Bonaventure has 5 guards who are all extremely experienced (everyone but Luc is a senior or graduate student, and each has started at least 60 games in their career) and talented. Simply put, Mark Schmidt has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal at the guard positions this season. On top of that, Bona returns 6’10 280 lb big man Chad Venning who averaged 13/6 last season and can be a beast down low and Sophomore forward Yann Farell who had a really exciting freshman season in Olean. There’s also hope that after one full season of playing together, the St. Bonaventure core will be much more connected and comfortable playing with each other. If the returners have improved their chemistry and Schmidt can fold in the stellar transfers seamlessly then Bona will be in for a big season.

There is a but for Bona though. The but is that they were not good last year, not good at all. In fact, Bona finished outside the top 200 in KenPom, a rarity for a Mark Schmidt team, and ended the season 1-7 (including two blowout losses to Davidson). Some of that can be chalked up to the fact that the entire roster had never played with each other before last season but at the end of the day Mark Schmidt does have his work cut for him because the team will have to make a considerable jump in quality if it wants to contend for the A10 title.

Duquesne:

Duquesne and embattled head coach Keith Dambrot really turned it around last season, finishing 20-13, 6th in the A10, and 129th in KenPom after remaking the entire roster after an abysmal 2021/22 season that saw them go 6-24 and finish 280th in KenPom. The Dukes end to their season was not what they wanted, as they finished 1-4, including two incredibly disappointing and flat performances in the postseason but their overall season was an undeniable success. They return the major pieces from last season, including All-A10 guard Dae Dae Grant and All-A10 defensive player Jimmy Clark. Dambrot also dipped his toe into the transfer portal as well to bring in size and quality, experienced rotational players including the Drame twins, Andrei Savrasov, and Dusan Mahorcic. Duquesne has the pieces to make a run at the double bye again, they just need one or two players to step up and help take some of the scoring load off of Grant and Clark.

The big question for me for Duquesne is who is going to step up and be the third option for the team. Grant is an A10 star and Clark is really good as well but otherwise they do not return anyone who averaged more than 6.6 points per game. As for the transfers, the drame twins and Mahorcic should all be good, solid role players but none of the 3 have ever been big time scorers. That leaves Andrei Savrasov for me as the guy most likely to step up and fill that role, as he averaged 14 and 7 on 50% shooting and 36% from 3 last year at Georgia Southern. If he doesn’t though, Dambrot is going to have find someone else because Grant and Clark can’t do it on their own and overreliance on 3s can lead to inconsistent performances.

Saint Joseph’s:

On the surface it may seem odd that a program that hasn’t had a winning season since 2015/16 was picked to finish 5th in the A10. It’s even odder when you consider that their head coach, Billy Lange, has only had TWO winning seasons in 11 years as a head coach and has a career winning percentage of 40%. But, Lange has slowly (frustratingly so) improved St. Joe’s record every season he has been at the helm, going from 2 conference wins to 3 to 5 to 8 last year. More importantly though, Lange has got some DUDES. Saint Joe’s has arguably the most talented roster in the conference, not an easy feat when competing against Dayton and VCU. Athe top, Lange is returning 3 players, Erik Reynolds, Cam Brown, and Lynn Greer, who all averaged over 12.5 points/game last season. Reynolds in particular is undeniably a top 5 player in the A10 this upcoming season after averaging 20/3/3 and shooting 38% from 3. Lange has also continued to recruiting well, bringing in talent both via the portal and high school recruiting. A lot of pressure will fall on 7’ 285 lb Center Christ Essandoko. Essandoko will be asked to replace Ejike Obinna and anchor the defense. From everything I’ve heard, he is very much up to the challenge and huge breakout candidate for this upcoming season. If Saint Joe’s wants to have a good defense to go along with the immense perimeter talent they have on the roster they need him to breakout in a big way.

Lange bringing in big talent at Saint Joe’s is not new, and so far it has not led to a single season that anyone would call successful or good. And even though last year was a step forward in wins and losses, KenPom said that the Hawks actually got worse from the previous season, dropping from 163rd to 191st in the country. The point is, there are MAJOR question marks about Lange’s coaching, and he has gotten far more opportunities than most coaches do at this level. If he’s turned a corner and Essandoko is as good as advertised, coupled with the sheer talent on the roster, Saint Joseph’s has a chance to finally get back to where the program historically has been. If Lange has not improved, and its asking a lot for a 12th year head coach to change, then it will unfortunately be more of the same on Hawk Hill. I personally believe Lange will do just enough to produce a good season in Philly but the pressure is very much on.