Reacting to the Preseason Poll: Part II

Yesterday I made a case for and against the top 5 teams in the A10 Preseason Poll, today I’m back to do the same with the 5 schools ranked between 6 and 10: Saint Louis, Fordham, Loyola Chicago, George Washington, and George Mason.

Saint Louis:

Similar to Dayton, SLU entered the 2022/23 season with legitimate top 25 hype and similar to Dayton they failed to live up to those lofty standards and were more or less never seriously in the NCAA Tournament at-large picture. Still though, just like Dayton, SLU finished with over 20 wins and secured a double-bye in the A10 Tournament; a successful even if disappointing season.

Being picked 6th in the preseason poll was mildly surprising to many but SLU does have some very legitimate reasons to feel optimistic heading into this season. First off, 2 time all-A10 performer Gibson Jimerson returns for a fifth season with the West Pine Bills and he’ll be looking to return to form after a slightly disappointing campaign. Even with the somewhat down year in 2022/23 Gibson still managed to score 14 points per game and shoot better than 40% from 3, if he gets the volume he should and can return to his 2021/22 form his over/under for points will be in the 20s on a nightly basis. SLU also has some exciting young talent returning as well, mainly Sincere Parker and Larry Hughes. If both players can turn their flashes into more consistent full time play SLU will have a scary backcourt. I’m VERY high on the Parker-Hughes backcourt by the way and think that if Ford trusts and rides with them that it’ll play great dividends down the road.

Travis Ford is another reason why Bills fans can feel optimistic. Yes, Ford has earned a reputation for not getting his teams fully over the hump, but part of the frustration comes from the fact that he consistently churns out good, talented teams that are always in the A10 double bye picture. In fact, in the past 5 seasons SLU has won about 2/3 or more of its games every season. A10 twitter analysts may not bet on Ford making the NCAA Tournament but it would be a bad idea to bet against him having a competitive team that wins a lot of games. Finally, SLU also hired an assistant coach who did WORK overseas and brought in a lot of highly intriguing players, including 7’0 265 lb Chinese Big Man Bruce Zhang. Ford was also able to bring in two mid-major transfers, Michael Meadows from Portland and Tim Dalger from Tulsa, who are about to embark on their 5th years in college basketball and averaged double digits last year. At the very least that sort of experienced production should help early on. There’s talent and quality coaching in this squad for sure.

Now comes the pessimism. SLU finished just barely inside the top 100 on KenPom last season when they were expected to be in the top 35 at the very least, and they lose 5 of their top 6 rotation players, including noted point god Yuri Collins. That’s a lot of production to replace from a team that underperformed. On top of that SLU has a lot of question marks at the center position. SLU has 3 players with the size to play center, two of them (Bruce Zhang and fellow foreign recruit Stef Van Bussel) have yet to play organized basketball stateside and are largely unknown quantities even if highly intriguing pieces for the future, and the third, Bradley Ezewiro, is at best 50/50 to be eligible for this upcoming season. Even if Ezewiro is eligible he's somewhat an unknown quantity as well as he averaged just 4 points and 4 rebounds in 12 minutes per game for 7-25 Georgetown last year. Case in point, we have no idea what we are getting from SLU’s bigs and Travis Ford has already admitted that he may have to try out some creative lineups to work around that fact.

Fordham

Fordham comes in 7th and for my money is the hardest team to place because they lose so much but still have a very exciting, even if unproven, core. Starting with the positives, Keith Urgo has announced himself as one of the best coaches in the A10 in just 1 season after finishing 25-8 last year and coaching the Rams to the 41st best defense in the country per KenPom. It’s hard to overstate just the type of miracle Urgo worked after replacing Kyle Neptune on short notice when the latter took the Villanova job in April 2022. The level of losing that Urgo had to overcome to produce Fordham’s best season since 1991 is incredible; in fact, Fordham has had 26 losing seasons (13 of which saw single digit wins) out of its last 32. Yet there Urgo was, leading Fordham to a double bye, exciting the student body to the point where it was packing Rose Hill Gym regularly, and pushing Dayton to the limit in the A10 semifinals. If there is a way to win, Urgo will find it.

On top of that, Fordham has some very exciting talent to work with. Fordham brings back rock solid seniors Antrell Charlton and Kyle Rose at the guard and wing spots, exciting and highly touted sophomore guard Will Richardson, and Angel Montas who missed last season due to injury but is said to be primed for a massive breakout this upcoming season. On top of that, Urgo managed to land athletic Patriot League All-Freshman team Josh Rivera as well who fits the Fordham system like a glove. If Urgo can keep Fordham playing its trademark gritty defense (which is reminiscent of VCU’s under its past head coaches) and gets breakouts from Will Richardson and Angel Montas then the Rams will be in the double-bye hunt (and maybe more).

There are legitimate question marks though. Fordham had a banner season by any metric, but their overall win tally was helped by a non-conference schedule that KenPom rated as the 336th toughest in the country and the team finished just 173rd in KenPom. From that team Fordham loses its two 5th year seniors, Guard Darius Quisenberry and Forward Khalid Moore, who were the catalysts for the Rams turnaround. These two did everything for the team and will be incredibly tough to replace. In fact, the two averaged 16.9 and 15.7 points per game respectively, while no one else averaged more than 7.3. On top of that Fordham also loses Ukrainian Big and solid role player Rostyslav Novitskyi as well. Ultimately Fordham will have to replace over 50% of its production and 14 years of college basketball experience from last season’s team. This will require everyone on the team to step up a role or two (especially in Richardson’s case). Those in and around the Fordham program are very confident highly talented guys like Richardson, Montas, and Rivera will be able to do this and even though asking young, unproven players to step into new roles always breads uncertainty there is no reason to doubt Urgo and the momentum he’s created in the Bronx at this moment.

Loyola-Chicago

Loyola joined the A10 after a 5-year run in the MVC that saw them make a final four, a sweet sixteen, and three NCAA Tournaments as well win at least 20 wins all 5 seasons. This in turn led to high expectations for their first season in the A10… in which they proceeded to absolutely stink, finishing 10-21 and last place in the 15 team A10. Drew Valentine responded by targeting high quality, highly experienced players in the transfer portal who should all come in and be solid role players immediately. Those players include 6-5 Wing Des Watson, who averaged 9 and 4 last year at Davidson, 6-3 Guard Greg Dolan, who averaged 13/4/4 and shot 42.5% from 3 last season at Cornell, and 6’8 Forward Dame Adelekun, who averaged 14/7/3 at Dartmouth last season. Dolan and Adelekun were also all-Ivy selections as well. On top of that Loyola returns forward Philip Alston, who should challenge for an all-A10 selection, steady graduate guard Braden Norris (who's primed for a bounceback season), exciting all-A10 freshman team wing Ben Schwieger, and more. Loyola also adds Miles Rubin, a big man recruit who I’m really high on. If Alston can take the next step in his development and challenge for first team all-A10 and someone else, anyone else, can fill the number 2 role behind him, then Loyola has enough really solid pieces to complement them and atone for their catastrophic season in 2022/23. If no one steps up though Loyola is still replete with upwards of 5 or 6 rock solid players and should be much better than they were last year when they finished 253rd in KenPom.

The primary case for pessimism for Loyola is again just how badly they stunk last year. It’s hard to go from one of the worst 100 teams in the entire country to contending for an A10 double bye (but it’s not impossible, shoutout Duquesne and Keith Dambrot). It’s also fair to question whether a few transfers from the Ivy and a lower half A10 team are enough to make such a jump. Many around A10 twitter are taking a cautious approach and remain low on the Ramblers as a result.

George Washington

Another team featuring a second-year head coach, Chris Caputo and his newly anointed Revolutionaries look to build on a solid 2022/23 season. The primary reason for optimism is none other than two-time all-A10 guard James Bishop. Before Caputo Bishop had a reputation for being a highly talented but inefficient volume shooter. After Caputo took over Bishop became a much better player. His scoring increased from about 17 per game to almost 22 per game, but more importantly his assists and field goal percentage skyrocketed from 1.9/game to over 5/game and from 38.7% to 43%. If Bishop can continue his progress under Caputo then he could have a MONSTER season. On top of that GW also returns the 2022/23 A10 Rookie of the Year 6-5 Guard Maximus Edwards. Edwards and Bishop should team up to create one of the most dynamic backcourt duos in the conference. To add to the excitement GW also went out and landed some intriguing talent in the transfer portal and high school recruiting. In particular we have our eye on lanky 6-7 Wing Benny Schroder, a German transfer from Oklahoma and the Big 12 who comes in with pretty high acclaim. In international play Benny has shown the ability to fill it up, albeit inefficiently. If Caputo can work his Bishop magic on Benny, then GW will have a deadly three level scorer as their third option.

So the offense looks great, but the question marks arise when you look at GW’s defense. GW finished 217th on KenPom last season, largely thanks to having a defense that finished 322nd in the country. The perimeter defense was a sieve, and the rim protection was… lacking. As an outsider I don’t see much reason why it will be any better next season (but I’m not a GW insider and would listen if told why). In fact, I’m more worried about GW’s rim protection than I was last season. GW has just two players taller than 6’8, Babatunde Akingbola and Keegan Harvey. Akingbola spent the last 4 seasons at Auburn where he played just 50 games and averaged 1 point and 2 rebounds per game while fouling more per game than he scored. Harvey is a bit younger and more proven but not by much, as he’s entering his 4th year of college basketball and has averaged 3 points and 2 rebounds per game for his career. It hurts as well that the advanced statistics say that Bishop, GW’s best player, has never had a season where he wasn’t rated very poorly on the defensive end. Schroder’s and Edwards’ size should help a lot this season, but Caputo certainly has his work cut out for him on defense.

George Mason

George Mason is another program that was forced to replace their head coach and a majority of their roster. As with VCU though they may have just upgraded at the head coach spot, as Kim English brought with him a lot of hype but not a ton in the way of results in his two seasons in NoVa. Replacing English is Tony Skinn, who has spent the last decade as an assistant coach (with stops in the Big Ten and Big East most recently), and before that was the point guard on George Mason’s 2006 Cinderella Final Four Team. Needless to say, the Mason alumni have been buzzing to have one of their own at the helm. Skinn immediately hit the DMV area and transfer portal hard to build his roster. He landed multiple 3&D wings including 6’9 Graduate Woody Newton, 6’7 Sophomore Keyshawn Hall, 6’5 Senior Darius Maddox, and 6’4 Junior Jared Billups. He also brought in some beef up front with 6’11 Nicolas Pavrette, 6’9 Graduate Amari Kelly, and 6’8 Jalen Haynes. At the very least this Patriots team will be able to play defense. The three players who elicit the most optimism for me are returning Senior Guard Ronald Polite and the aforementioned Jalen Haynes. When healthy Polite has been a catalyst for the Patriots, as he averaged 12/3/4 on 44% shooting and 36.4% 3-point shooting last year. If he can replicate the jump he made from his sophomore to junior season to his senior season he will be in the mix for an all-A10 team. Haynes was a beast at ETSU last year, averaging `5/6/2 on nearly 58% shooting. At 6’8 250 he is a LOAD to stop down low. Unfortunately Haynes is waiting on a waiver decision from the NCAA as George Mason is his third school in three yearss. With the way the NCAA has been stingy in giving out such waivers, Haynes’ season is very much up in the air right now. Whether or not he plays will be a HUGE factor in Mason’s season. If Haynes gets his waiver he'll form a throwback, intimidating PG-Center duo with Polite. That combo coupled with the shooting, length, and defense Mason has could lead to the Patriots making some noise in the A10.

The flipside of Haynes’ situation is the case for pessimism. Without Haynes George Mason has just 1 player, Ronald Polite, who’s averaged double digit points in his collegiate career. That means that if Haynes is not eligible Polite will shoulder an incredible amount of the scoring and creation load. On top of that, this Mason team has really not played with each other after Kim English and 7 of his top 9 rotation players left (most with him for Providence). Add in the fact that Skinn is a first-year head coach, and as with so many other A10 programs there is a lot of uncertainty this upcoming season. Getting Haynes eligible, a guy who can just bully his way to a bucket on command, would take a lot of uncertainty and pressure off everyone else in the Green and Gold.