So Close, Yet So Far

The Cats welcomed George Mason to Belk Arena Saturday in what turned out to be a chippy, entertaining affair. The coaching staff installed a solid game plan, the players brought energy on both ends, and when the Patriots started to pull away Manie Joses, Hunter Adam, and Joe Hurlburt came off the bench to spark the Cats back to life. Ultimately the Cats fell just short though, 64-60. In a vacuum this result is nothing too shocking or dismaying; the Patriots are a really solid team in first place in the A10. The problem is that this same story keeps playing out time-after-time. Over the past two seasons Matt McKillop's teams have lost 14 games in which they had at least a ~70% win probability during the game (in 11 of those games the win probability rose to around or surpassed 80%). This year alone, the Cats have blown three double-digit leads. In close games (OT or decided by 2 or less possessions) Matt McKillop's teams are just 5-20 against A10-level competition. Finally, the Cats have conceded a double digit run to the opposing team in 15 of their 21 games this season, that number rises to 16 if you include the 8 point run given up to Richmond. When viewed together, these stats paint an extremely worrisome picture of a program unable to get over the hump, held back by the same back-breaking mistakes time-after-time... So what in the world is up?

The first instinct in a team sport is to look at the roster. Just a year ago I was a big believer that the coaching staff was squeezing the most juice out of the orange that it could. In Matt McKillop's first year, we saw 8 scholarship players graduate, leave for the pros early, or transfer; including 3 of the team's top 4 players. 2022/23 was always going to be a rebuilding year after losing 75% of the previous year's roster. Even last season you could say something similar as, again, 3 of the top 4 players on the team exhausted their eligibility, went pro early, or transferred. Last year's team took legitimate steps forward too, jumping 15 spots on KenPom to #125, even as the overall record worsened. This was in spite of the roster being severely limited in the skill department, finishing 310th in the nation in 3-point field goal % and 230th in assists, losing key big man David Skogman to injury around the New Year, and multiple newcomers falling short of their preseason expectations (and subsequently transferring out of the program in the offseason). The thing is, this season was supposed to be a lot different.

Matt McKillop and the staff spent the offseason overhauling the roster, replacing players with underwhelming metrics with exciting young talent, re-emphasizing 3 point shooting and skill, Reed Bailey and Bobby Durkin were primed for breakout seasons, and the College got creative and established a certificate program that allowed the staff to recruit and retain 5th year grad students such as Zach Laput and Connor Kochera. Those efforts have largely paid off, the team has taken major leaps on offense on the back of the 3-point shooting and assist numbers ranking in the Top 100 in the country, Reed Bailey has exploded into a top-3 player in the A10 and Bobby Durkin has blossomed into a top-15 player in the A10, Zach Laput and Connor Kochera have provided much needed experience and leadership, and multiple rotational players such as Mike Loughnane have proven they were ready for new roles. Yet somehow, in spite of the 3-point shooting being back, Reed Bailey being an A10 POY candidate, Bobby Durkin having an all-conference season, and having two 5th year seniors, the Cats are in an almost identical position as they were last year. Not only are we in third-to-last place in the A10 in February, we are 122nd in KenPom, just 3 measly spots ahead of where we finished last year. In spite of the micro-level problems being entirely different, the macro-problems are exactly the same; the team has an insanely hard time winning close games against A10 level competition, is prone to a litany of mental mistakes, and seems to give up a crippling run in every game. How is it possible to completely change the inputs and somehow get an almost identical output? I don't know, but the fact that the coaching staff is the primary constant here feels quite important.

In case you're not convinced, let me add one more horrifying fact. In each of the past two seasons Davidson has regressed substantially as the season has progressed. This season, Davidson ranked 93rd in T-Rank for the duration of the non-conference season but have dropped to 159th in nation since. Last season the Cats were 100th in the nation in the non-conference and dropped to 140th once conference play started. The hallmarks of Bob McKillop teams were that they got better as the season went on, oftentimes much better. So far, the statistics show that Matt McKillop teams have done the opposite. That is not an easy pill to swallow for anyone.

So what's next? How does this get fixed before our basketball program falls too far into mediocrity? There are real holes on the roster that can and need to be addressed. It'd be great to bring in a true point guard and a physical center, and its never a bad idea to add more shooting, but focusing on the roster feels like missing the forest through the trees. The evidence shows pretty clearly that Matt McKillop needs to seriously consider shaking things up. In fact, a little less stubbornness overall could do wonders. For example, even as the defense has cratered this season to 230th in the country, Matt McKillop has played Manie Joses and Joe Hurlburt sparingly while continuing to largely run out the same lineup that has gotten abused on defense. Time and time again it feels like we are asking Zach Laput and Reed Bailey to guard 4s and 5s who have massive size advantages over them. Everything from the eye-test to the advanced metrics says this strategy isn't working, but the coaching staff keeps going to it. I think it's bigger than just defensive strategy though, the stubbornness is more pervasive than that.

Personally I think the answer is for Matt McKillop to bring in a voice from outside the Davidson family. Someone who could bring a fresh perspective and push Matt McKillop to switch things up. Those who pay close attention to the program will remember just how much of an impact Kevin Kuwik, now head coach at Army, made when he joined Bob McKillop's staff after the Cats had a disappointing 2016/17 season. Bob McKillop himself called Kevin Kuwik a superb addition to the staff and likened hiring him to landing a 4-star recruit. Kuwik rewarded Bob McKillop's decision to go outside the family, and was a huge piece for the five years he was at Davidson, helping spearhead major improvements rebounding and on defense. Matt McKillop's tenure at Davidson may come down to him being willing to make the same move, going outside the close-knit Davidson family to switch things up. For the sake of Davidson Basketball we hope he does, because evidence is starting pile up that the rigid orthodoxy we see now is not going to cut it.